摘要
采用“压力-状态-响应”模型、突变级数法和探索性时空数据分析方法,对长三角城市群26市生态安全状况进行定量测度和定性评价,分析了各城市生态安全空间格局和时空跃迁的演变特征。结果表明:(1)2005—2015年长三角城市群各市生态安全状况有所好转,但大部分城市处于较不安全和较安全水平区间,总体生态安全水平不高。(2)长三角城市群中部和东南部城市生态安全水平的空间结构稳定性更好;南通市具有最大的空间依赖性,而上海市表现出最小的空间依赖性;LISA(Local Indications of Spatial Association)时间路径移动方向的分析则表明长三角城市群在生态安全演变上体现出较强的空间整合性。(3)Moran’sΙ的空间凝聚度Kt=0.698,即不发生类型跃迁的概率为69.8%,表明长三角城市群各城市生态安全水平存在一定的格局变动但自身相对位置不易发生改变。探讨区域生态安全的协同增长机制,可为长三角城市群生态安全问题的诊断与调控提供理论基础,同时也可为其他城市群的可持续发展提供参考与借鉴。
The PSR model, catastrophe progression method and exploratory spatial temporal data analysis are used to quantitatively characterize the spatial pattern of ecological security levels of 26 cities in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration. This article has concluded three findings as follows. Firstly, the ecological security levels of the cities in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration has increased from 2005 to 2015, but most cities are in the relatively unsafe and relatively safe level, and the overall ecological security level is not in the high level. Secondly, the spatial structure stability of urban ecological security level in the central and southeastern regions of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration is better;Nantong has the greatest spatial dependence, while Shanghai has minimal spatial dependence;The analysis of the moving direction of LISA time path shows that the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration has strong spatial integration in the ecological security evolution. Thirdly, the spatial cohesion of Moran’s Ι is Kt=0.698, that means the probability of no type transition is 69.8%, which indicates that there is a certain pattern change in the ecological security level of cities in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration, but it is not easy for their relative position to change. This study discusses the coordinated growth mechanism of regional ecological security, which can provide a theoretical basis for the diagnosis and regulation of ecological security problems of urban agglomerations in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration. Moreover, it also provides relevant reference for the sustainable development of other urban agglomerations.
作者
张中浩
聂甜甜
高阳
谈晟荟
高峻
Zhang Zhonghao;Nie Tiantian;Gao Yang;Tan Shenghui;Gao Jun(College of Environmental and Geographical Sciences,Shanghai Normal University,Shanghai 200234,China;Yangtze River Delta Urban Wetland Ecosystem National Field Scientific Observation and Research Station,Shanghai 200234,China;College of Land Science and Technology,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100193,China;National Natural Science Foundation of China,Beijing 100085,China)
出处
《地理科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第11期1923-1931,共9页
Scientia Geographica Sinica
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41730642)
国家社会科学基金项目(17ZDA058)
2022年度中国科协科技智库青年人才计划资助。
关键词
突变级数法
探索性时空数据分析
生态安全
长三角城市群
catastrophe progression method
exploratory spatial temporal data analysis
ecological security
the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration
