摘要
钻井事故会造成严重的人员伤亡和物资损失,且钻井作业危害因素多样,难以准确判断危害因素间的交叉影响。通过系统分析钻井作业的风险特征,从人、物、环境和管理等方面建立涵盖15项指标的钻井作业危害因素指标体系。基于贝叶斯网络建立危害因素交叉影响的评价模型来分析因素的影响层次和结构关系,分为里层影响层、间接作用层、直接致因层和作业防护层。将模型应用到实际钻井过程中,得到危害因素的综合影响结果为25%,并且数据表明最严重的交叉影响关系是“钻井方案”-“钻井现场监护巡查”-“人员违章”这一链条。
Drilling accidents can cause serious casualties and material losses.Due to various hazard factors in drilling operations,it is difficult to accurately determine the cross-influence among the hazard factors.Through systematically analyzing the risk characteristics of drilling operations,the indicator system of hazard factors covering 15 indicators was established in terms of human,material,environment,and management.Based on the Bayesian network,an evaluation model for the cross-influence of hazard factors was established to analyze the influence level and structural relationship of the factors,it was divided into the inner influence layer,indirect action layer,direct cause layer and operating protective layer.In the process of applying the model to the actual drilling process,the comprehensive impact result of the hazard factors is 25%.And the result indicated that the most serious cross-influence relationship was the chain of“drilling scheme”-“drilling on-site monitoring and inspection”-“personnel violation”.
作者
张福蕾
Zhang Fulei(SINOPEC Research Institute of Safety Engineering Co.,Ltd.,Shandong,Qingdao,266104)
出处
《安全、健康和环境》
2022年第11期6-11,共6页
Safety Health & Environment
关键词
钻井作业
贝叶斯网络
危害因素
交叉影响
层次模型
drilling operation
Bayesian network
hazard factors
cross-influence
hierarchical model
