摘要
深远海溢油回收作业安全依赖于人员、管理、设备和环境因素交互约束,为了系统性揭示深远海溢油回收作业风险生产和发生发展过程,本文提出一种多层模糊变权Petri网模型。首先,在分层考虑事故发展过程的基础上,添加变权因素,将事故发展过程中的各信息元素进行动态量化;然后,推导出最有可能导致深远海溢油回收作业失败的风险演化路径和初始原因。最后,基于演化路径提供针对性管控策略。本文研究成果可为其他类型的深远海救助作业风险评估提供借鉴。
The safety of deep-sea oil recovery operation depends on the interactive constraints of personnel,management,equipment and environmental factors.In order to systematically reveal the risk production and development process of deep-sea oil recovery operation,this paper proposes a multi-layer variable weight fuzzy petri nets model.First,on the basis of considering the accident development process by layers,variable weight factors are added to dynamically quantify the information in the accident development process.Then,the risk evolution path and initial cause most likely to the failure of deep-sea oil spill recovery operations are derived.Finally,it provides targeted control strategies based on the evolutionary path,which also provides a useful reference for the risk assessment of other types of deep-sea operations.
作者
金浩
王利丹
康健
王吉武
张英香
杨军红
吉洪文
JIN Hao;WANG Li-dan;KANG Jian;WANG Ji-wu;ZHANG Ying-xiang;YANG Jun-hong;JI Hong-wen(The 714 Research Institute of CSSC,Beijing 100101,China;School of Safety Engineering,Beijing Institute of Petrochemical Technology,Beijing 102617,China;FENGFAN Co.,Ltd.,Baoding 071051,China)
出处
《舰船科学技术》
北大核心
2022年第20期83-87,共5页
Ship Science and Technology
基金
高技术船舶科研资助项目(MC-201902-C01,CBZ2N21-2)
国家自然科学青年基金资助项目(71901029)
北京市教委科技计划资助项目(KM202010017009)。
关键词
深远海
溢油回收作业
多层模糊变权Petri网
风险演化
deep-sea
oil spill recovery operation
multi-layer variable weight fuzzy Petri net
risk evolution
