摘要
目的分析我国2015-2022年中药材价格指数的变化趋势并进行预测,为促进中药材的稳定发展提供助力。方法利用我国2015年1月-2022年4月中药材价格指数分别建立ARIMA和GM(1,1)模型,同时运用该模型对2022-2023年中药材价格指数进行预测,分别计算两个模型的平均绝对误差(MAE)值和平均相对误差(MRE)值,比较两个模型的精确性和实用性。结果ARIMA(0,2,1)模型的MAE值为11.625,MRE值为0.009,GM(1,1)模型的MAE值为18.151,MRE值为0.012,ARIMA模型的预测误差小于GM(1,1),根据研究结果显示,2022-2023年中药材价格指数将会继续上涨。结论2022年5月-2023年12月中药材价格指数有所波动,但是上升趋势明显。为避免中药材价格指数大幅度波动,维持中药材市场平稳运行,应加大对中药材生产的扶持和引导、完善中药材种植保险、建立中药材电子商务平台以及中药材价格监测调整机制等。
Objective To analyze the change trend of the price index of Chinese herbal medicines in China from 2015 to 2022 and make predictions,so as to provide assistance for promoting the stable development of Chinese herbal medicines.Methods The ARIMA and GM(1,1)models were established by using the price index of Chinese medicinal materials from January 2015 to April 2022,and the models were used to predict the price index of Chinese medicinal materials from 2022 to 2023.The mean absolute error(MAE)value and mean relative error(MRE)value of each model were calculated separately to compare the accuracy and practicality of each model.Results The MAE value of the ARIMA(0,2,1)model was 11.625,the MRE value was 0.009,the MAE value of the GM(1,1)model was 18.151,and the MRE value was 0.012.The prediction error of the ARIMA model was smaller than that of the GM(1,1)model.According to the research results,the price index of Chinese medicinal materials will continue to rise from 2022 to 2023.Conclusion The price index of Chinese medicinal materials fluctuated from May 2022 to Dec 2023,but the upward trend was obvious.In order to avoid large fluctuations in the price index of Chinese herbal medicines and maintain the stable operation of the Chinese herbal medicines market,more efforts should be made to support and guide the production of Chinese herbal medicines,improve the planting insurance of Chinese herbal medicines,and establish an e-commerce platform for Chinese herbal medicines as well as a mechanism of price monitoring and adjustment of Chinese herbal medicines prices.
作者
杜亚萍
魏骅
陶群山
DU Yaping;WEI Hua;TAO Qunshan(Anhui University of Chinese Medicine,Hefei 230000,China)
出处
《广东药科大学学报》
CAS
2022年第5期53-58,共6页
Journal of Guangdong Pharmaceutical University
基金
安徽省高校人文社科重大项目“安徽省促进中药产业健康发展政策研究”(SK2017ZD18)。
