摘要
预测城市生活垃圾产生量有利于城市规划建设。基于皖南六市2011—2020年的城市生活垃圾清运量及其影响因素基础数据,通过相关系数计算确定了各城市垃圾产生量的多元线性回归预测模型并进行了验证;结合影响因子估计和应用回归方程对皖南六市2021—2022年的生活垃圾产生量进行了预测。结果表明,皖南六市城市生活垃圾产生量的影响因素按相关系数从大到小排序依次为居民可支配收入、建成区面积、地区生产总值以及人口数量。2021—2022年的城市生活垃圾产生量总体呈上升趋势,其中,2022年马鞍山生活垃圾产生量的增长率为3.24%,芜湖和宣城为4.88%,铜陵为7.49%,黄山为4.63%,池州为-0.93%。各地应积极推行垃圾分类,倡导低碳生活方式,减少垃圾产生量。
Predicting the amount of municipal solid waste(MSW)is conducive to urban planning and construction.Based on the basic data of MSW removal and transportation volume and its influencing factors in six cities in southern Anhui over 2011-2020,the multiple linear regression prediction model of urban waste production is determined and verified through the calculation of correlation coefficient.It is predicted by estimating impact factors and linear regression prediction model.The results show that the influencing factors of MSW production in the six cities in southern Anhui are residents’disposable in-come,built-up area,regional GDP and population according to the correlation coefficient.From 2021 to 2022,the MSW pro-duction in six cities in southern Anhui showed an overall upward trend.In 2022,the growth rate of domestic waste production in Ma’anshan is 3.24%;Wuhu and Xuancheng are 4.88%;Tongling is 7.49%;Chizhou decreased slightly to-0.93%and Huangshan is 4.63%.All localities should actively promote waste classification,advocate a low-carbon lifestyle,and reduce waste generation.
作者
傅妍芳
刘赵文
吴青青
石熠静
FU Yanfang;LIU Zhaowen;WU Qingqing;SHI Yijing(School of Materials and Environmental Engineering,Chizhou University,Chizhou 247100,China;School of Big Data and Artificial Intelligence,Chizhou University,Chizhou 247100,China)
出处
《安庆师范大学学报（自然科学版）》
2022年第3期80-85,共6页
Journal of Anqing Normal University(Natural Science Edition)
基金
安徽省教育厅科学研究项目(SK2019A0727)
安徽省高校优秀青年人才支持计划项目(gxyq2021032)。
关键词
城市生活垃圾
多元线性回归分析
指数平滑法
皖南
MSW
multiple linear regression analysis
exponential smoothing method
Southern Anhui
