摘要
社会保障支出监测和评价对社会保障制度的发展和完善具有深远意义。随着我国工业化的不断推进,社会保障支出规模也在不断扩大,因此有必要考察工业化与社会保障支出之间的联系。本文采用自回归分布滞后约束加以检验,采用国家统计局公布的2009年至2019年的年度数据进行计量估计,并从短期和长期动态关系视角深入分析。研究结果表明,工业化对社会保障支出产生显著影响。因此,政府可以通过控制工业化对社会保障支出的消极影响,促进工业化对社会保障支出的积极影响,进而提高整体社会保障支出水平。
Social security expenditure monitoring and evaluation has far-reaching significance for the development and improvement of the social security system.Social security expenditure includes two components:public service expenditure of the central government and local governments,and social security and employment expenditure of the central government and local governments.With the continuous promotion of industrialization in China,the scale of social security expenditure is also expanding,so it is necessary to examine the link between industrialization and social security expenditure.Econometric estimates were made using annual data published by the National Bureau of Statistics from 2009 to 2019,and in-depth analyses were made from short-and-long-term dynamic relationship perspectives.The results showed that industrialization has a significant effect on social security expenditure,Therefore,the government can promote the positive effect of industrialization on social security expenditure by controlling its negative effect on social security expenditure so as to increase the overall level of social security expenditure.
作者
王云多
WANG Yun-duo(Economic and Business Management School,Heilongjiang University,Harbin,Heilongjiang 150080)
出处
《商学研究》
2022年第4期122-128,共7页
Commercial Science Research
基金
国家社会科学基金项目“生育率下降与预期寿命延长双重约束下养老保险制度可持续性研究”(16BRK016)
黑龙江省省属高校基础科研业务项目“人口老龄化与劳动力流失双重约束下黑龙江省职工基本养老保险制度可持续性研究”(2021-KYYWF0111)。
关键词
社会保障
工业化
自回归分布滞后
social security
industrialization
autoregressive distribution lags
