摘要
面对复杂的国际国内环境,中国提出“以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进”的发展战略。但从现实来看,中国农村居民消费结构仍处于较低层级,促进农村居民消费结构升级是中国实施“双循环”战略的内在要求。基于2011—2020年中国省际面板数据,运用面板门槛效应和中介效应模型实证检验数字普惠金融对农村居民消费结构升级的影响,研究得到以下主要结论:第一,从整体上看,数字普惠金融对中国农村居民消费结构升级具有显著促进作用,且这种促进作用主要呈现为“边际递增”和“倒S型”非线性形态。第二,从异质性来看,数字普惠金融覆盖广度和数字化程度对农村居民消费结构升级的影响存在双重门槛效应,数字普惠金融使用深度的影响存在单一门槛效应。中西部地区,消费结构高水平区和低零售总额区数字普惠金融对农村居民消费结构升级的影响存在双重门槛效应,消费结构低水平区和高零售总额区存在单一门槛效应。第三,从作用机制来看,数字普惠金融主要通过农村经济发展和农村居民经营性收入增长两条路径,从意愿和能力两端对农村居民消费结构升级产生促进作用。当前中国农村仍在一定程度上存在“数字鸿沟”问题,数字普惠金融对中国农村居民消费结构升级的促进作用仍受到农村居民知识技能不足、风险承受能力较低、投资创业意愿不强等因素的制约。为此,中国要通过夯实农村数字普惠金融基础设施建设,为农村居民消费结构升级提供坚实的物质技术保障;要通过不断壮大农村经济和加强农村居民投资创业知识技能培训,大力提升农村居民消费结构升级的意愿和能力;要针对数字普惠金融对农村居民消费结构升级影响的异质性特征,采取更具有针对性的策略来推动数字普惠金融发展,促进农村居民消费结构顺利升级。
Given the present complex international and domestic economic and business environment,Chinese central government proposed a strategic development plan focusing on the leading role of the domestic circulation and promoting the mutual improvement of domestic and international dual-circulation.However,the fact of the matter is that the consumption structure of Chinese rural residents still remains at a relatively low level.Therefore,upgrading the consumption structure of rural residents becomes an inherent requirement for the implementation of the dual-circulation strategy.According to inter-provincial panel data from 2011-2020 in China,this study developed a panel threshold effect and intermediary effect model that empirically investigated the impacts of Digital Inclusive Finance on rural residents’consumption structure upgrading.The results reveals that,firstly,on the whole,digital inclusive finance has a significant contribution to the upgrading of the consumption structure of rural residents in China,and the contribution is mainly in the form of“marginal incremental”and“inverted S-shaped”non-linear patterns.Secondly,in terms of heterogeneity,there is a double-threshold effect of the breadth of digital inclusive finance coverage and the degree of digitization on the upgrading of rural residents’consumption structure,while there is a single-threshold effect of the depth of digital inclusive finance usage.A double-threshold effect of digital inclusive finance on the upgrading of rural residents’consumption structure is recognized in the central and western regions,areas with high consumption structure and low total retail sales exist.By contrast,a single-threshold effect in areas with low consumption structure and areas with high total retail sales is found.Thirdly,in terms of the mechanism of action,digital inclusive finance mainly promotes the upgrading of rural residents’consumption structure through two paths:rural economic development and rural residents’business income growth,from both the willingness and ability perspectives.At present,the“digital divide”still exists to a certain extent in the rural areas of China,and the role of digital inclusive finance in promoting the upgrading of the consumption structure of Chinese rural residents is still constrained by the factors such as the lack of knowledge and skills of rural residents,their low risk tolerance,and their low willingness to invest and start businesses.In this regard,central and local government should provide solid material and technical supports for upgrading rural residents’consumption structure by consolidating the construction of digital inclusive financial infrastructure in the rural areas.It will also vigorously enhance the rural residents’willingness and ability to upgrade their consumption structure by continuously strengthening the rural economy and enhancing their knowledge and skill in investment and entrepreneurship.Our findings suggest to take targeted strategies to promote Digital Inclusive Finance and smoothen the process of upgrading rural residents’consumption structure,considering the heterogeneity of the impact of Digital Inclusive Finance on the upgrading of rural residents’consumption structure.
作者
杜家廷
何勇
顾谦农
DU Jia-ting;HE Yong;GU Qian-nong(College of Economics and Management,Chongqing Normal University,Chongqing 401331,China;Miller College of Business,Ball State University,Indiana 47306,U.S.A)
出处
《统计与信息论坛》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第9期63-74,共12页
Journal of Statistics and Information
基金
国家社会科学基金项目“数字普惠金融支持中小企业发展效率提升的机理分析与优化路径研究”(21BJY047)
重庆市社会科学规划项目“金融错配对重庆市制造业供给侧改革的抑制效应及再配置路径研究”(2016 YBJJ021)。
关键词
数字普惠金融
农村居民消费结构升级
面板门槛效应模型
棘轮效应
digital inclusive finance
rural residents’consumption structure upgrading
panel threshold model
ratchet effect
