摘要
我国双碳目标提出后,碳排放总量能否得到有效控制,有赖于政策的施行。本文从政府和市场两个维度着手,将政府层面的行政法规以及市场层面碳市场交易价格信号和减排技术创新三个重要变量引入E-DSGE模型,揭示不同减排行为对我国碳排放总量控制短期行动目标和长期规划目标的效果,并基于福利损失法进行了政策研究。研究发现,政府部门通过制定行政法规对实现短期碳达峰目标具有明显促进作用,但从长期规划来看,随着减排动机增强,会滋生“运动式减碳”行为。碳市场价格信号对短期碳减排行为具有明显促进作用,但从长期规划来看,囿于碳市场价格波动性较大,控排企业减排成本过高,减排效果并不乐观。在短期行动和长期规划目标下,技术创新促进碳减排的效果显著。进一步分析发现,当经济系统的不确定性因素增加时,加强减排技术创新,才可实现碳排放总量控制与经济发展的双赢。
After the dual carbon target is put forward,whether the total carbon emissions can be controlled depends on the implementation of the policy.This paper introduces three important variables,namely administrative regulations,carbon market transaction price signal and emission reduction technology innovation,into the E-DSGE model to reveal the effect of emission reduction policies on the short-term action goals and long-term planning goals of China's total carbon emission control,and also conducts a policy selection study based on the welfare loss method.The research findings are as follows:(1)Government departments can significantly promote the short-term carbon peak goal by formulating administrative regulations.However,from the perspective of long-term planning,with the improvement of emission reduction motivation,the behavior of"sports carbon reduction"will breed.(2)The carbon market price signal can significantly promote the short-term carbon emission reduction behavior.However,from the perspective of long-term planning,due to the large fluctuation of carbon market price,the emission reduction cost of emission control enterprises is too high,and the emission reduction effect is not optimistic.(3)Under short-term actions and long-term planning goals,technological innovation has a significant effect on carbon emission reduction.(4)When the uncertain factors of the economic system increase,we should gradually strengthen the technological innovation of emission reduction,so as to achieve a win-win situation between total carbon emission control and economic development.
作者
杨博文
尹彦辉
Yang Bowen;Yin Yanhui(College of Humanities and social development,Nanjing Agricultural University,Nanjing,210095,China;Shandong Institute of management,emerging business development research institute,Jinan,250357,China)
出处
《中南财经政法大学学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第4期118-129,共12页
Journal of Zhongnan University of Economics and Law
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“《巴黎协定》国家自主贡献下碳市场机制建构的法律进路及中国策略研究”(20CFX065)
中国博士后科学基金第71批面上资助项目“《巴黎协定》后欧盟碳边境调整机制对多边贸易体制的法律挑战及中国应对策略”(2022M712014)。
关键词
双碳目标
碳市场价格信号
减排行政法规
碳排放总量控制
Double Carbon Target
Carbon Market Price Signal
Administrative Regulations on Emission Reduction
Total Carbon Emission Control
