摘要
中国深空探测是复杂的系统工程,涉及领域多、技术难度大、经费需求高,目前方案优选方法是论证组论证和中介机构专家评估后形成,该方法论证周期长,不易快速做出科学决策.本文基于模糊层次分析模型,考虑技术、科学、经费等多指标多层次结构,建立系统指标评价模型.以中国探月工程中嫦娥四号任务方案为具体算例,综合专家判断和理论分析,建立各层次指标的判断矩阵,计算权重系数,进而实现总体方案的优选应用评价.结果表明,技术、科学和经费这三个因素相对于周期和效益更为重要.在4个备选方案中,由长征四号丙发射中继星,长征三号乙发射着陆器和巡视器组合体的方案,排序权值最大,因此该方案为最优方案,这也与实际情况一致.本研究可为我国后续各类深空探测方案制定提供快速及科学的理论支撑.
China’s deep space exploration program is a complex and systematic project involving many fields and having great technical difficulties and funding requirements. The current program optimization method was developed in response to the demonstration group’s demonstration and the expert evaluation of the intermediary agency. This method requires a long demonstration period and makes rapid scientific decisions difficult. The Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP) and the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process(FAHP) are both practical multi-factor and multi-objective decision-making methods that are widely used in many fields. To solve the problem of AHP being difficult to verify and judge for consistency, the concept of a fuzzy, consistent matrix was introduced, followed by the establishment of the FAHP. The introduction of the FAHP into the optimization of the overall scheme for deep space exploration benefits both the selection of the optimal overall scheme at the national level, which enables all relevant parties to reach consensus as soon as possible, and the national scientific decision-making process. This study established a systematic index evaluation model based on the FAHP model, considering the multi-index and multi-level structure of technology, science, and funding, among other things. By combining expert judgment and theoretical analysis,a judgment matrix of indicators at various levels was established and weight coefficients were derived for the Chang’e-4 mission plan in China’s lunar exploration project.Then,the overall plan was evaluated for optimal applicability.The results show that the three factors of technology,science,and funding are more important than time and benefit.Advancement and reliability are the primary control factors under the technical criteria.Scientific value is the major controlling factor when it comes to scientific criteria.The development cost is the primary constraint on the funding criterion.Planning compliance and planning feasibility are the primary controlling factors under the cycle criterion.Scientific output and technological promotion are the major controlling factors under the criterion of benefit.Among the four alternatives,the one in which the relay satellite is launched by the Long March 4C and the lander and rover are launched by the Long March 3B has the largest sorting weight.As a result,this solution is the optimal solution that is also consistent with the current situation.This research can help China provide rapid and scientifically sound support for various deep space exploration programs.
作者
刘彤杰
宋洪庆
张杰
骆笑天
彭如意
张贤国
LIU Tong-jie;SONG Hong-qing;ZHANG Jie;LUO Xiao-tian;PENG Ru-yi;ZHANG Xian-guo(School of Astronautics,BEIHANG University,Beijing 102206,China;Shanghai Academy of Spaceflight Technology,Shanghai 201109,China;School of Civil and Resources Engineering,University of Science and Technology Beijing,Beijing 100083,China;Joint Laboratory of Deep Space Exploration,Resource Identification and Utilization,University of Science and Technology Beijing,Beijing 100083,China;National Space Science Center,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China)
出处
《工程科学学报》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第8期1433-1443,共11页
Chinese Journal of Engineering
关键词
深空探测
探月工程
方案优选
模糊层次分析法
权重系数
deep space exploration
lunar exploration
scheme optimization
fuzzy analytic hierarchy process
weight coefficient
