摘要
针对变化环境下径流序列的突变特征,采用多尺度直线拟合法对汾河上游4个水文站(上静游站、汾河水库站、寨上站和兰村站)年径流量序列进行突变点检测,并基于系统的恢复速率及恢复力、方差及自相关系数的演变规律检测突变前兆信号。结果表明:上静游站、汾河水库站、寨上站和兰村站年径流量序列的突变年份分别为1975年、1966年、1966年和1966年,径流量均呈减少趋势,突变后多年平均径流量较突变前分别减少了22.81%、19.75%、24.68%和31.14%;基于系统的恢复速率和恢复力检测到突变前兆信号分别发生于1973年、1958年、1958年和1958年,基于方差和自相关系数检测到突变前兆信号分别发生于1968年、1960年、1960年和1960年。突变前兆信号均提前于突变年份10 a之内,对突变具有可靠的预警作用。
Aiming at the mutation characteristics of runoff sequence under changing environment,this paper adopted the multi-scale linear fitting method to detect the mutation point of annual runoff sequence of four hydrological stations on the upper reaches of Fenhe River and detected the mutation precursor signals based on the evolution law of recovery rate,recovery force,variance and autocorrelation coefficient of the system.The results show that the mutation point in the annual runoff sequence of Shangjingyou Station,Fenhe Reservoir Station,Zhaishang Station and Lancun Station are in 1975,1966,1966 and 1966 respectively.The runoff has been reduced by 22.81%,19.75%,24.68%and 31.14%respectively.The mutation precursor signals are detected in 1973,1958,1958 and 1958 respectively based on the recovery rate and recovery force of the system.The mutation precursor signals are detected in 1968,1960,1960 and 1960 respectively based on the variance and autocorrelation coefficient.The mutation precursor signals are all premised within ten years of the mutation year,which has a reliable early warning effect on the mutation.
作者
秦超瑞
桑宇婷
赵雪花
祝雪萍
QIN Chaorui;SANG Yuting;ZHAO Xuehua;ZHU Xueping(College of Water Resources Science and Engineering,Taiyuan University of Technology,Taiyuan 030024,China)
出处
《人民黄河》
CAS
北大核心
2022年第7期24-29,共6页
Yellow River
基金
山西省重点研发计划项目(201903D321052)
山西省自然科学基金资助项目(201901D111060)。
关键词
径流序列
突变检测
前兆信号
汾河上游
runoff sequence
mutation detection
precursor signals
Upper Fenhe River
