摘要
灰色模型作为变形监测预报的一种手段已得到广泛应用,而目前关于强、弱随机性非等间隔灰色模型的对比及适用条件的研究较少。针对此问题,随机选取深圳市某地铁渡线隧道拱顶和地表沉降67期等间隔观测数据中的10期,分别对其建立强、弱随机性非等间隔灰色模型,并利用MATLAB软件编程来分析模型精度和预测精度,得出在地铁变形监测中利用非等间隔数据进行建模预报的最佳方法。通过进一步分析原始数据的沉降趋势,建立数据的增减趋势与预测模型的选取关系,即对于沉降量处于缓慢上升阶段的数据列,强、弱随机性预测模型均可;对于沉降量先缓慢上升再趋于稳定的数据列,强随机性模型适用,但弱随机性模型不适合;对于沉降变形先增再减最后平稳的数据列,强、弱随机性模型的预测结果都很差。
Grey model has been widely used as a means of deformation monitoring and forecasting. However,the study about comparison and application conditions of strong and weak random non-equal grey model is rare. In view of this problem,we select 10 phases from 67 equal interval observation data of tunnel vault and ground subsidence of a transition line in Shenzhen metro randomly. And we construct strong and weak random non-equal grey model for each phase. The model accuracy and forecasting precision are analyzed by MATLAB software programming to obtain the optimal method of modeling and forecasting using non-equal interval data in subway deformation monitoring. By further analyzing the subsidence trend of the original data,the relationship between the increase and decrease trend of the data and the selection of the forecasting model is established. For the data series in the stage of slow rise,both strong and weak stochastic forecasting models are suitable. For the data series that rise slowly first and then tend to be stable,the strong random model is suitable,but the weak random model is not. For the data series that increase first,then decrease and finally tend to be stable,the forecasting results of both strong and weak random models are poor.
作者
张立亚
张宏梅
祝传广
龙四春
ZHANG Liya;ZHANG Hongmei;ZHU Chuanguang;LONG Sichun(Hunan Provincial Key Laboratory of Clean Coal Resources Utilization and Mine Environmental Protection,Hunan University of Science and Technology,Xiangtan 411201,China;School of Resource and Environment and Safety Engineering,Hunan University of Science and Technology,Xiangtan 411201,China)
出处
《测绘地理信息》
CSCD
2022年第3期38-42,共5页
Journal of Geomatics
基金
国家自然科学基金(41877283)
湖南省自然科学基金(2019JJ50190)。
关键词
隧道施工
强弱随机性
非等间隔灰色模型
沉降预报
tunnel construction
strong and weak randomness
non-equal interval grey model
settlement forecasting
