摘要
全球范围的疫情蔓延和保护主义兴起对中国企业提高出口抗风险能力提出了新要求。本文以2008年金融危机为例,通过构建企业自生贸易网络指标并借助生存分析法,研究了企业贸易网络对贸易关系出口恢复的促进作用。结果表明,企业既有贸易网络能通过降低出口恢复时的固定成本和缓解危机期间的受冲击程度,有效提升中断贸易关系在危机后的出口恢复概率。此外,贸易网络对中断贸易关系的恢复程度也具有明显提升作用。本研究为企业充分利用自身已有贸易优势,提高防范国际市场风险能力提供了经验参考。
The pandemic and the rising level of protectionism globally have led to new requirements for Chinese enterprises to enhance their export resilience. Taking the 2008 financial crisis as an example, this paper uses the BACI database and the China Customs database to study the promoting effect of the corporate trade network on the resumption of disrupted trade relations by constructing a self-generated corporate trade network index and using the survival analysis method. The results show that the existing corporate trade network can effectively improve the resumption probability of interrupted trade relations after the crisis and export recovery by reducing the fixed cost of this recovery and alleviating the degree of impact during the crisis. The trade network also plays a significant role in the recovery of interrupted trade relations. The paper further analyses the possible heterogeneity of different trade types, products, enterprises and destination characteristics on the effect of the trade network on the export resumption based on the degree of economic impact. This study provides an empirical reference so enterprises can make full use of their existing trade advantages and improve their ability to prevent risks in the international market.
作者
胡昭玲
高晓彤
Hu Zhaoling;Gao Xiaotong
出处
《世界经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第5期113-136,共24页
The Journal of World Economy
基金
教育部人文社科项目(20YJA790026)
国家自然科学基金面上项目(71973072)
天津市教委社科重大项目(2019JWZD38)的资助。
关键词
贸易网络
出口恢复
经济冲击
生存分析
trade network
export resumption
economic shocks
survival analysis
