摘要
区域综合能源系统(RIES)在提升能源利用水平和促进可再生能源消纳方面具有显著作用,合理有效地对其进行评价是促进其发展的重要前提。该文计及系统运行状态不确定性对于评价结果的影响,提出一种基于变权可拓云模型的RIES综合评价模型。首先,综合考虑系统的技术层面、管理层面和外部资源支持,基于“驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应”(DPSIR)模型建立RIES评价指标体系;其次,结合可拓云模型,以指标云关联度计算的随机性贴合评价中系统运行状态的不确定性,通过网络层次分析法(ANP)-熵值法-变异系数法求得各指标权重,并利用惩罚型变权改善了模型中掩盖“短板效应”的问题,确定了RIES的综合运行评价等级;最后,通过算例仿真验证了文中所提模型的评价综合性和处理状态不确定性问题的有效性,并对指标的优化顺序进行了灵敏度仿真分析研究。
The Regional Integrated Energy System(RIES)plays a significant role in improving energy utilization and promoting renewable energy consumption,and a reasonable and effective evaluation can promote its better development.Firstly,considering the three aspects of technology,management and external resources of the system,the RIES evaluation index system was established based on the"driving force-pressure-state-impact-response"(DPSIR)model.Secondly,the randomness of index cloud correlation degree calculation was used to fit the uncertainty of system operation state in evaluation,and the comprehensive operation evaluation level of RIES was calculated by extension cloud model.Among them,the index weight is obtained by Network Analytic Hierarchy Process(ANP)-entropy-coefficient of variation method.Moreover,the penalty variable weight is used to improve the problem of covering up the"short board effect"of the model.Finally,an example simulation was implemented,which verified the evaluation comprehensiveness of the proposed model and the effectiveness of dealing with state uncertainty problems.On this basis,the sensitivity simulation analysis of the optimization sequence of indicators was carried out.
作者
马丽叶
张涛
卢志刚
杨林林
Ma Liye;Zhang Tao;Lu Zhigang;Yang Linlin(School of Electrical Engineering Yanshan University Qinhuangdao,066004,China)
出处
《电工技术学报》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第11期2789-2799,共11页
Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(61304183)。
关键词
区域综合能源系统
运行状态不确定性
驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应模型
可拓学
云模型
惩罚型变权
Regional integrated energy system(RIES)
uncertainty of running state
driverspressures-states-impacts-responses(DPSIR)model
extension theory
cloud model
punishment type variable weight
