摘要
新时代新阶段新格局对推动长江经济带高质量发展,构筑高水平对外开放新高地提出了新要求。研究长江经济带自贸区试点政策实施的经济效应,对于更好地发挥自贸区试点的战略支点作用,促进长江经济带建设与“一带一路”推进有机结合,加快形成长江经济带全方位对内对外开放新格局具有重要意义。选取位于长江经济带的自由贸易试验区为研究对象,采用基于有限信息的政策评估方法——回归合成法,从经济增长、对外贸易、金融发展、固定资产投资、财政收入五个方面对重庆、四川、湖北、浙江、上海自由贸易试验区政策经济效应进行系统量化评估。研究发现,自贸区的设立对当地的经济效应总体上是显著正向的,但是部分指标表现的显著性水平不高,经济效应基本上呈倒“U”型的变化趋势。具体来看,自贸区设立对地区生产总值、外贸进出口总额和金融机构本外币贷款余额等都有较显著的促进作用,金融体制创新和贸易便利化改革是自贸区拉动经济增长的重要渠道;而固定资产投资和财政收入两个指标不够显著;自贸区政策的经济效应存在明显的区域差异性,自贸区建设基础和发展定位是其政策效果呈现差异性的重要原因,且内陆自贸区的经济效应大于沿海自贸区。结果还表明,当前长江经济带五大自贸区的政策红利还未充分释放,沿海自贸区的制度创新成果应根据内陆自贸区的定位和建设基础等特性有选择地加以复制推广。最后,就各自贸区发挥各自优势,错位发展,完善长江经济带自贸区联动自循环发展机制,优化对内对外立体开放体系等方面提出建议。研究结论拓展了自贸区政策效应评估的研究维度,为长江经济带自贸区深化制度创新改革,促进协同对内对外开放提供政策参考。
The new era,new stage and new pattern put forward new requirements for promoting the high-quality development and building a new highland of high-level opening to the outside world of the Yangtze River Economic Belt.Studying the economic effects of the Pilot Free Trade Zone(PFTZ)policy implementation of the Yangtze River Economic Belt is of great significance to give play to the strategic fulcrum role,to promote the organic combination of the development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt and“Belt and Road”construction,and to accelerate the formation of a new pattern of all-round opening up of the Yangtze River Economic Belt at home and abroad.The PFTZs and their provinces(municipalities)in the Yangtze River Economic Belt are selected as the research objects,and adopting the policy evaluation method based on limited information,the policy effects of Chongqing,Sichuan,Hubei,Zhejiang and Shanghai PFTZs are systematically and quantitatively evaluated in five areas,namely,economic growth,foreign trade,financial opening,investment in fixed assets,and fiscal revenue.The results showed that the establishment of the PFTZs had significant positive effects on the local economy on the whole,while the performance of some indicators was not significant enough,the positive policy effects basically showed an inverted“U”pattern.To be soecific,the establishment of the PFTZs had played a significant role in promoting local economic growth,foreign trade and balance of domestic and foreign currency loans of financial institutions,financial system innovation and trade facilitation reform are the important channels for PFTZs to drive regional economic growth;However,investment in fixed assets and fiscal revenue were not significant enough;There is obvious regional difference in the economic effects of the PFTZ policies,the economic effects of inland PFTZs are greater than that of coastal PFTZs in terms of economic indicators,the construction foundation and development orientation of the PFTZs are the important reasons for the difference of their policy effects.The results also showed that the current policy effects of the five major PFTZs in the Yangtze River Economic Belt had not been fully released,and the institutional innovation achievements of the coastal PFTZs should be selectively promoted according to the positioning and construction foundation of the inland PFTZs.Finally,the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward as follows:giving full play to their respective advantages and developing in a staggered manner,improving the linkage and self-circulation development mechanism of between the PFTZs in the Yangtze River Economic Belt,optimizing the multidimensional opening-up system at home and abroad.The research conclusion expands the research dimensions of policy effect evaluation of free trade zone,provides policy reference for deepening institutional innovation and reform of the PFTZs in the Yangtze River Economic Belt,and promoting coordinated opening at home and abroad.
作者
刘成杰
胡钰苓
李虹桥
李勇
LIU Cheng-jie;HU Yu-ling;LI Hong-qiao;LI Yong(Research Center for Economy of Upper Reaches of the Yangtse River,Chongqing Technology and Business University,Chongqing 400067,China;School of Statistics,Chengdu University of Information Technology,Chengdu 610225,China)
出处
《统计与信息论坛》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第6期47-61,共15页
Journal of Statistics and Information
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目“工业大数据统计测度理论及应用研究”(21&ZD153)
四川省社科规划项目“工业大数据统计及对四川现代工业监测应用研究”(SC21TJ004)
重庆工商大学长江上游经济研究中心科研(智库)“农业现代化与产业创新发展研究团队(重点)”项目(CJSYTD201710)。
关键词
长江经济带
自由贸易试验区
政策效应
区域差异性
回归合成法
Yangtze River Economic Belt
Pilot Free Trade Zone(PFTZ)
policy effects
regional difference
regression control method
