摘要
天然气管道腐蚀因素具有模糊性和随机性,为有效保障管道安全运行,提高评价准确性,提出了一种基于二维云模型的风险评价方法。依据天然气管道历史失效数据建立天然气管道腐蚀风险评价指标体系,从土壤腐蚀、杂散电流、介质腐蚀性、其他腐蚀因素、防腐措施五方面展开研究。首先,运用改进层次分析法(AHP)及熵权法确定主客观权重,再经差异系数法调和得出组合权重。其次,根据等级量化区间得到各等级标准云,将指标的失效后果和失效概率作为二维云的两组基础变量,结合前面得到的权重矩阵,计算出各级风险云和综合云。最终,通过Matlab绘制云图及相近度计算确定风险等级。将该方法运用到新疆油田天然气管道腐蚀风险评价,得出其腐蚀风险为Ⅱ级,风险可接受,与工程实际一致,表明该风险评价方法具有一定的可行性,完善了天然气管道腐蚀风险评价方法。
The corrosion factors of natural gas pipelines are fuzzy and random,so a risk evaluation method based on the two-dimensional cloud model is proposed to effectively ensure the safety operation of the pipeline and improve the accuracy of evaluation.Based on historical failure data of natural gas pipelines,a system of corrosion risk assessment index for natural gas pipelines is established,and five aspects are studied:soil corrosion,stray current,medium corrosion,other corrosion factors,and anti-corrosion measures.First,the subjective weights are calculated by using the improved analytic hierarchy process(AHP),the objective weights are calculated by using the entropy weight method,and then the combined weight is obtained by the difference coefficient method.Second,the standard cloud of each level is obtained according to the level quantization interval.Taking the index failure consequence and failure probability as two groups of two-dimensional cloud basic variables,combined with the previous weight matrix,the risk cloud and comprehensive cloud at all levels are calculated.Ultimately,the standard cloud image is drawn by MATLAB,and the risk level range of natural gas pipelines is determined by comparing the standard cloud and calculating the similarity.The method is applied to the corrosion risk assessment of the natural gas pipeline in Xinjiang Oilfield.It is concluded that the corrosion risk of the pipeline is Grade II,and the risk is acceptable.The result is consistent with actual engineering.And it is consistent with the results of the other two methods,which shows that the risk evaluation method is feasible.This method is based on the two-dimensional cloud model,considering the possibility of natural gas pipeline corrosion failure,the failure consequences,and the fuzziness of the risk degree boundary of the evaluation index,to improve the corrosion risk assessment method of natural gas pipelines.
作者
张鹏
王璟
范潮海
唐胜雨
安兆暾
ZHANG Peng;WANG Jing;FAN Chao-hai;TANG Sheng-yu;AN Zhao-tun(School of Civil Engineering and Geomatics,Southwest Petroleum University,Chengdu 610500,China;China Petroleum and Natural Gas Pipeline Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Langfang 065000,Hebei,China;School of Oil&Natural Gas Engineering,Southwest Petroleum University,Chengdu 610500,China)
出处
《安全与环境学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第2期558-565,共8页
Journal of Safety and Environment
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(50974105)
中国工程院重大咨询研究项目(2011-ZD20)。
关键词
安全工程
腐蚀
改进AHP
二维云模型
风险评价
safety engineering
corrosion
improvement of analytic hierarchy process
two-dimensional cloud model
risk assessment
