摘要
目的:对精神科急诊患者攻击行为发生风险的相关因素进行调查及分析,构建预测模型并对模型进行评价。方法:筛选精神科急诊患者12345例纳入分析,使用攻击风险评估表评分将患者分为低风险组(≤Ⅰ级)与高风险组(>Ⅰ级),对两组患者进行人口学及疾病学资料的调查,使用Logistic回归分析确定攻击行为发生的危险因素,并进行模型构建。结果:纳入分析的患者中低风险组6771例,高风险组5574例;两组在性别、婚姻状况、受教育年限、就业情况、家庭月收入、与父母同胞的关系等人口学变量及就诊时间、发病诱因、病前性格、起病形式、精神病家族史、首发年龄、精神科总住院次数等疾病学变量均有统计学意义(P<0.05或P<0.01)。对模型进行评价,区分度、灵敏度均较好,但校准度一般。结论:攻击风险预测模型对精神科急诊患者攻击风险的预测能力一般,提示攻击行为发生的危险因素可能与人口疾病学危险因素之外的其他因素也相关。
Objective:To investigate and analyze the risk factors of aggressive behavior in psychiatric emergency patients,and build and evaluate prediction model.Method:12345 psychiatric emergency patients were selected and analyzed.The patients were divided into low-risk group(≤grade I)and high-risk group(>grade I)by using attack risk assessment scale.The demographic and pathological data of the patients in the two groups were investigated.The risk factors of aggressive behavior were determined by Logistic regression,and the model was constructed.Results:6771 patients in the low-risk group and 5574 patients in the high-risk group were included in the analysis.There were significant differences between the two groups in demographic variables such as gender,marital status,years of education,employment,monthly family income,relationship with parents and siblings,and disease variables such as time visiting a doctor,precipitating factors,personality before illness,form of onset,family history of psychosis,age of first episode,total number of psychiatric hospitalizations(P<0.05 or P<0.01).The discrimination and sensitivity of the model were good,but the calibration degree was general.Conclusion:The ability of the aggression risk prediction model to predict the aggression risk of psychiatric emergency patients is not efficient,suggesting that the risk factors of aggression may also be related to other factors other than demographic risk factors.
作者
潘轶竹
王刚
朱辉
及晓
李京渊
李小强
尹利
陈媛
PAN Yi-zhu;WANG Gang;ZHU Hui;JI Xiao;LI Jing-yuan;LI Xiao-qiang;YIN Li;CHEN Yuan(The National Clinical Research Center for Mental Disorders&Beijing Key Laboratory of Mental Disorders,Beijing Anding Hospital,Capital Medical University,Advanced Innovation Center for Human Brain Protection,Capital Medical University,Beijing 100088,China)
出处
《临床精神医学杂志》
CAS
2022年第2期98-102,共5页
Journal of Clinical Psychiatry
基金
首都卫生发展科研专项-青年项目(首发2014-4-2125)。
关键词
精神科急诊
攻击行为
风险预测
模型构建
psychiatric emergency department
aggressive behavior
risk prediction
model construction
