摘要
为探讨中国能源企业对阿尔及利亚直接投资风险测度的有效方法,揭示东道国国家风险的动态演变规律,本文构建了投资风险指标体系与风险动态测度的“PCA-EM”模型,测算了2002年-2018年阿尔及利亚投资风险指数,分析了中国能源企业对阿尔及利亚投资风险的变化趋势及特征。结果表明:①中国能源企业对阿尔及利亚的投资风险总体呈小幅上升趋势:②经济风险、政治风险是影响中国能源企业对阿尔及利亚投资的相对重要的因素,③随着时间的变化,经济、政治、社会、资源风险等各影响因素对投资风险的影响程度也会发生变化。
In order to explore the effective measurement of direct investment risk of Chinese energy enterprises in Algeria,and reveal the dynamic evolution of the risk of the host country,this paper constructs an index system of investment risk and the"PCA-EM"model for dynamic measurement of risks.The indexes of investment risk of Algeria from 2002 to 2018 are calculated,and the trend and characteristics of Chinese energy enterprises in Algeria are analyzed.The results show:①The overall trend of investment risk of Chinese energy enterprises in Algeria is slightly increasing;②Economic risk and political risk are relatively important factors affecting Chinese energy enterprises'investment in Algeria;③The degree of the influence of economic,political,social and resource risks and other factors on investment risks will change overtime.
出处
《中国能源》
2022年第1期16-23,共8页
Energy of China
基金
中国非洲研究院2021年度应急热点课题AfCFTA对中国企业对非直接投资模式影响机制研究(编号:CAI-E2021-10)。
关键词
能源企业
投资风险
动态测度
Energy Enterprises
Investment Risk
Dynamic Measurement
