摘要
针对水库多目标调度方案决策评价问题,引入后悔理论、灰靶理论和最大熵理论并加以综合集成,构建了基于后悔理论-灰靶理论-最大熵理论的水库多目标调度优化决策模型(RT-GT-MET)。首先基于后悔理论来考虑决策者的后悔规避心理和风险偏好态度,构造了基于正负理想点的欣喜-后悔值函数;其次,结合灰靶理论确定正负靶心,利用正负靶心距的空间投影距离建立了综合靶心距函数;然后,引入最大熵理论降低决策过程的不确定性,搭建了集结综合靶心距最小和权重熵值最大的非线性优化模型;最后,结合主客观评价指标权重控制域进行全局优化求解,依据最优综合靶心距实现方案集的决策排序。两个实例应用研究结果验证了所提出模型的合理适用性,表明该模型可以提升水库多目标调度决策的简便性、科学性和造用性,可为水库多目标调度决策提供一种有效的新思路。
In order to solve the evaluation and decision making problem of reservoir multi-objective operation schemes,a new evaluation model based on regret theory(RT),grey target theory(GT)and maximum entropy theory(MET)was constructed and named as RT-GT-MET.Firstly,the decision makers′regret aversion psychology and risk preference attitude was considered based on RT,then the happy and regret function based on positive and negative ideal points were separately formed.Secondly,by determining the positive and negative target distance with GT,the space projection distance to the positive and negative target was used to establish the comprehensive target distance function.Then,MET was introduced to reduce the uncertainty of evaluation process,and a nonlinear optimization model with the minimum comprehensive target distance and the maximum weight entropy was established.Finally,the model was optimized efficiently within the search range determined by the subjective and objective weights,and the decision order was made according to the optimal comprehensive target distance.The two application results verified the rationality and applicability of RT-GT-MET,and indicate that it is able to improve the simplicity,scientificity and practicability of multi-objective decision making,so as to provide an effective new idea for decision making of reservoir multi-objective operation.
作者
邹强
饶光辉
张先平
洪兴骏
李荣波
ZOU Qiang;RAO Guanghui;ZHANG Xianping;HONG Xingjun;LI Rongbo(Changjiang Survey,Planning,Design and Research Co.,Ltd.,Wuhan 430010,China;Flood and Drought Disaster Prevention Bureau,Changjiang Water Resources Commission,Wuhan 430010,China)
出处
《人民长江》
北大核心
2022年第2期176-181,共6页
Yangtze River
基金
国家重点研发计划资助项目(2021YFC320302)
长江勘测规划设计研究有限责任公司自主创新项目(CX2019Z44)。
关键词
水库调度
多目标决策
后悔理论
灰靶理论
最大熵理论
优化求解
reservoir operation
multi-objective decision making
regret theory
grey target theory
maximum entropy theory
optimal solution
