摘要
如何确保新旧"双倍增"和"双增长"目标的精准实现,是我国宏观调控的重大任务,也是值得研究的理论问题。本文利用最优控制理论,建立二次线性最优控制(LQOC)模型,对"十三五"期间"双倍增"目标完成情况进行最优控制检验,进而对"十四五"时期精确实现"双增长"目标的最优控制策略进行模拟分析。研究发现,复杂的历史条件下,我国必须容忍适度通货膨胀,尤其是要精准调控CPI,稳定推进城市化,将有利于"双增长"目标的实现保持良好的条件。研究结论对提高我国跨周期宏观调控能力,实现宏观调控从"粗放调控"转向"精准调控"具有重要启示意义。
How to ensure the new and old"Double-growth"and"Double-growth"goals to achieve accurate,is a major task of our Macroeconomic regulation and control,but also worth studying the theoretical issues.In this paper,a quadratic linear optimal control(LQOC)model is established by using optimal control theory,and the optimal control test is carried out for the"Double increase"target during the"13th five-year plan",then,the optimal control strategy to achieve the double growth target in the period of the 14th five-year plan is simulated and analyzed.It is found that under the complicated historical conditions,China must tolerate moderate inflation,especially regulate CPI accurately and promote urbanization steadily,which will be beneficial to the realization of"Double growth".The conclusion of this paper is of great significance to improve the ability of cross-cycle Macroeconomic regulation and control and realize the Macroeconomic regulation and control from"Extensive regulation"to"Precise regulation".
作者
伍文中
赵果庆
WU Wenzhong;ZHAO Guoqing(GuangZhou University School of Economics and Statistics,Guangzhou 510006,China;Yunnan University of Finance,Kunming 650211,China)
出处
《中国软科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第12期163-174,186,共13页
China Soft Science
基金
教育部人文社科基金“区域平衡发展导向下的政府间财政合作机制研究”(18YJA790087)
国家自然科学基金项目“我国“十三五”宏观经济目标与最优控制研究”(71563059)。
关键词
GDP
城乡居民收入
双倍增目标
线性二次型最优控制
精准调控
urban and rural residents’income
double increase target
linear quadratic optimal control
precise control
