摘要
因地施策是我国住房信贷政策调整的基本逻辑和总体基调,长三角地区作为我国经济发展最活跃的区域之一,研究其房价的空间性关系及影响机制具有重要意义。因此,基于2002—2018年长三角26个城市的面板数据,先运用全局莫兰指数、Moran指数散点图和Lisa聚类图,对该地区商品房销售价格的空间相关性及其演变趋势进行了详细分析。结果表明,长三角地区的房价呈现出显著的空间正相关关系,即在空间上呈现聚集分布;一些城市房价的空间格局在此期间发生了明显变化,其中,金华市从L-H型转变为H-H型,合肥市、无锡市由L-L型转变为H-L型。然后采用空间误差模型从供需角度分析了长三角地区房价的影响因素,估计结果显示,长三角地区的房价存在一定程度的联动关系;从供给方面看,房地产开发投资额对长三角地区房价的影响不显著,商品房销售面积对长三角地区的房价有显著负向影响,但相对于人口密度和城镇化率来说影响程度较小;从需求方面看,反映人口因素的人口密度和城镇化率对房价有显著的正向影响,且影响程度相对较强;城镇居民人均可支配收入对长三角地区的房价影响不显著。
It is the basic logic and general keynote for China’s housing credit policy adjustment to be implemented according to local conditions.As one of the most active regions in China’s economic development,it is of great significance to study the spatial relationship and influence mechanism of housing prices in the Yangtze River Delta.Based on the panel data of 26 cities in the Yangtze River Delta from 2002 to 2018,an analysis has been made of the spatial correlation of the selling prices of commercial housing in the Yangtze River Delta region by using the global Moran index,Moran index scatter diagram and Lisa cluster diagram.The results show that the housing prices in the Yangtze River Delta present a significant positive spatial correlation,i.e.,showing an aggregation distribution in space.The spatial pattern of housing prices in some cities has changed significantly during this period,with Jinhua City changing from L-H to H-H type,while Hefei and Wuxi changing from L-L to H-L type.Then the spatial error model is used for an analysis of the influencing factors of housing prices in the Yangtze River Delta from the perspective of supply and demand,with the estimated results showing that there is a certain degree of linkage between housing prices in the Yangtze River Delta region.Viewd from the perspective of the supply,the impact of real estate development investment on housing prices in the Yangtze River Delta is not significant,while the sales area of commercial housing has a significant negative impact on the price of the Yangtze River Delta,a relatively small impact compared with population density and urbanization rate.From the perspective of demand,the population density and urbanization rate,which reflect the population factors,have a relatively strong significant positive impact on house prices,whearas the per capita disposable income of urban residents exerts no significant impact on housing prices in the Yangtze River Delta.
作者
金长宏
张芬芬
JIN Changhong;ZHANG Fenfen(School of Economics and Management,Anhui Jianzhu University,Heifei 230031,China)
出处
《湖南工业大学学报》
2022年第2期70-78,共9页
Journal of Hunan University of Technology
关键词
房价
空间相关性
空间误差模型
空间计量方法
长三角地区
housing price
spatial correlation
spatial error model
spatial measurement method
Yangtze River Delta
