摘要
中美第一阶段经贸协议明确规定了美国农产品进入中国市场的总金额和时间安排,按照正常贸易年份的比例估算,该协议的实施将促使中国大幅增加自美大豆、棉花、高粱、生牛皮、动物食用杂碎、冻鱼等农产品的进口,并明显压缩自巴西、新西兰、阿根廷、泰国、澳大利亚、加拿大等国的农产品进口。从各类产品的国别效应看,大豆产品上巴西和阿根廷受中美第一阶段经贸协议的影响非常大、棉花产品上澳大利亚遭受的阻碍最大、其他类农产品上对新西兰的抑制作用最明显。尽管美国的大豆、肉类、谷物和棉花在中国市场极具竞争力,但面临来自巴西、阿根廷、新西兰等国同类商品的激烈竞争,给中美第一阶段经贸协议的落实带来不确定性。为此,应加强海关数据监测、密切与美国的磋商、推动市场多元化合作,确保中国农产品需求的有效满足。
Phase One Economic and Trade Agreement between China and US clearly stipulates the total value and time schedule of US agricultural products entering China’s market. Based on the proportion of normal trade years, we find that the implementation of the Agreement will significantly increase China’s import of soybean, cotton, sorghum, raw hides and skins of bovine or equine animals, and frozen fish from the US. The Agreement will greatly reduce China’s agricultural imports from Brazil, New Zealand, Argentina,Thailand, Australia and Canada. From the perspective of the country-specific effects of various products,Brazil and Argentina will be greatly affected by the Agreement in soybean, Australia will suffer the most obstacle in cotton, and New Zealand will suffer the most obvious restraining effect in other agricultural products. Although US soybean, meat, grain and cotton are highly competitive in China’s market, they are facing fierce competition from Brazil, Argentina and New Zealand, which will bring uncertainties to the implementation of the Agreement. Therefore, we should strengthen Customs trade data monitoring and consultation between China and the United States, and promote market diversified cooperation to ensure the effective satisfaction of China’s agricultural demand.
作者
宋海英
SONG Haiying(Zhejiang InternationalStudiesUniversity,Hangzhou 310023,Zhejiang,China)
出处
《东北农业大学学报（社会科学版）》
2021年第5期73-83,共11页
Journal of Northeast Agricultural University:Social Science Edition
基金
国家自然科学基金项目“质量安全标准对蜂蜜国际竞争力的影响:基于目标市场的实证研究”(71303222)。
关键词
中美第一阶段经贸协议
农产品贸易
贸易转移效应
phase one economic and trade agreement between China and US
agricultural trade
trade diversion effect
