摘要
区域地质灾害预警模型是气象诱发地质灾害防治的基础科学问题。新疆广泛发育冻融型地质灾害与冰川型地质灾害,这两类灾害受控于温度与降雨两个诱发因素,以往的区域地质灾害预警多考虑降雨,缺乏这两类地质灾害的温度-降雨双因素预警模型。为此,以新疆伊犁谷地冻融型地质灾害与昆仑山北麓冰川型地质灾害为研究对象,在地质灾害发育规律与主要诱发因素分析的基础上,对新疆地质灾害进行预警亚区区划,根据温度指标和降雨指标与地质灾害关系分析,建立了温度-降雨双参数地质灾害预警模型。结论如下:(1)新疆冻融型地质灾害主要分布在伊犁谷地,主要为春季温度升高和降雨诱发黄土滑坡;冰川型地质灾害主要分布在昆仑山北麓,主要为冰川融水与暴雨诱发泥石流,具有垂直分带发育特征。(2)选取灾害当日最高气温、最低气温、当日温差等参数,表征温度指标;选取当日雨量、灾害前7 d有效雨量表征降雨指标;温度指标与降雨指标作为预警模型的基础指标。(3)以当日最低气温、灾害前7 d有效雨量作为预警参数,建立了伊犁谷地3—6月冻融型地质灾害预警模型;以当日最高气温、灾害前7 d有效雨量作为预警参数,建立了昆仑山北麓6—9月冰川型地质灾害预警模型。
Both the freeze-thawing geological disaster and the glacial geological disaster are widely developed in Xinjiang,which are dominated by two inducing factors:temperature and rainfall.At present,only rainfall is considered by most of the early warnings of regional geological disaster,thus there is a lack of temperature-rainfall dual factor early warning model for these two types of geological disasters.By taking the freeze-thawing geological disasters in Ili Valley of Xinjiang and the glacial geological disasters in the northern foot of Kunlun Mountains as the study cases,the sub-region division of geological disasters in Xinjiang for the early warning is carried out on the basis of the analysis made on the geological disaster development law and the main inducing factors,while a temperature-rainfall dual parameter early warning model for geological disasters is established in accordance with the analysis of the relationship between temperature-rainfall indexes and geological disasters.It is concluded from the study that(1)the freeze-thawing geological disasters occurred in Xinjiang are mainly distributed within Ili Valley and mainly are loess landslides induced by temperature rise in spring and rainfall,while the glacial geological disasters are mainly distributed within the area in the northern foot of Kunlun Mountains and mainly are the glacial meltwater and debris flow induced by rainstorm with the characteristics of vertical zoning development;(2)the parameters of the highest temperature,the lowest temperature and the temperature difference in the very day that the disaster occurred are chosen for characterizing the temperature indexes,while the effective rainfalls in the very day of the disaster occurred and seven days before the day are selected for characterizing the rainfall index and both the temperature and rainfall indexes are taken as the basic indexes;(3)both the lowest temperature in the very day that the disaster occurred and the effective rainfall seven days before the disaster occurred are taken as the early warning parameters,and then an early warning model of freeze-thawing geological disasters from March to June in Ili Valley is established,while an early warning model of glacial geological disasters from June to September in the north foot of Kunlun Mountains is established through taking both the highest temperature in the very day that the disaster occurred and the effective rainfall seven days before the disaster occurred as the early warning parameters.
作者
李守定
乔华
马世伟
白亚恒
姜越
贺强
LI Shouding;QIAO Hua;MA Shiwei;BAI Yaheng;JIANG Yue;HE Qiang(Key Laboratory of Shale Gas and Geoengineering,Institute of Geology and Geophysics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China;Innovation Academy for Earth Science,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China;College of Earth and Planetary Sciences,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;Geological Environment Monitoring Institute of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,Urumchi 830002,Xinjiang,China;Institute of Transportation Planning and Design of Henan Province,Zhengzhou 450046,Henan,China)
出处
《水利水电技术（中英文）》
北大核心
2021年第11期207-218,共12页
Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering
基金
第二次青藏高原科考项目(2019QZKK0904)
国家重点研发计划(2018YFC1504803)
中国科学院重点部署项目(KFZD-SW-422,ZDRW-ZS-2021-3-1)
新疆维吾尔自治区国土资源厅科研项目(XJDZFZ-XX2013)
中国科学院关键技术人才项目。
关键词
地质灾害
预警模型
温度-降雨双参数
geological disasters
early-warning model
temperature-rainfall dual parameter
