摘要
基于贝叶斯网络的城市燃气管网泄漏事故后果的预测与分析,研究城市燃气管网的泄漏过程,建立管网泄漏事故蝶形图模型;其次将该事故蝶形图模型转化为贝叶斯网络,构建城市燃气管网泄漏事故网络模型,进行事故后果的预测与分析;最后通过该模型进行案例分析,对比实际后果情况与模型预测结果,证实该贝叶斯网络模型适用于城市燃气管网泄漏事故后果的预测与分析。
Prediction and analysis of leakage accidents in urban gas pipelines based on Bayesian networks,taking the selection of urban gas pipeline network as the research object,study the leakage process of urban gas pipeline network from cause to effect,establish a butterfly diagram model of a leakage accident.Secondly,the butterfly diagram model based on the leakage accident of the city gas pipeline network is transformed into a Bayesian network,and based on the Bayesian network to build a leak accident network model of the city gas pipeline network,predict and analyze the consequences of gas pipeline network leakage accidents.Finally,a case analysis of actual accidents predicted by Bayesian network model,compare the predicted results of the model with the actual consequences of the accident,it is confirmed that the Bayesian network model is suitable for the prediction and analysis of the consequences of urban gas pipeline network leakage accidents.
作者
白玉贵
蒋雯丽
秦琪伟
龙彦宏
马家骥
姜骁
Bai Yugui;Jiang Wenli;Qin Qiwei;Long Yanhong;Ma Jiaji;Jiang Xiao(Municipal Research Institute,Lanzhou 730300,China)
出处
《城市勘测》
2021年第4期163-168,共6页
Urban Geotechnical Investigation & Surveying
关键词
贝叶斯网络
城市燃气管网泄漏
蝶形图模型
泄漏事故后果预测
Bayesian network
leak in the city gas network
butterfly diagram model
predicting the consequences of leakage accidents
