摘要
基于2020年3月—2021年3月西双版纳州景洪市逐日空气质量观测数据资料,主要分析大气污染物及AQI指数与各气象因子、火源点的相关性,找出主要影响因子,通过建模得出最佳AQI指数气象预报模型。得出结论:(1)西双版纳西边及南边的境外火点对西双版纳AQI指数影响最大;(2)与日照时数、水汽压、最高气温、最低气温、相对湿度、最小相对湿度、降水呈显著负相关;与高空500 hPa风向风速、700 hPa风速呈显著正相关,风向越偏西,AQI指数越大;(3)4个回归模型中有序回归模型预报方程拟合程度最好,预报准确率达83.56%。
Based on the daily air quality observation data of Jinghong City,Xishuangbanna from March 2020 to March 2021,this paper mainly analyzes the correlation between air pollutants and AQI index and meteorological factors and fire sources,finds out the main influencing factors,and obtains the best AQI index meteorological forecast model by modeling.The conclusions are as follows:(1)The fire spots in the west and south of Xishuangbanna have the greatest influence on the AQI index of Xishuangbanna;(2)It has significant negative correlation with sunshine hours,water vapor pressure,maximum temperature,minimum temperature,relative humidity,minimum relative humidity,minimum relative humidity,precipitation significant negative correlation with 500 hPa wind direction and wind speed,700 hP at high altitude The wind speed of the a is significantly positively correlated,the more westward the wind direction is,the greater the AQI index is;(3)The prediction equation of the ordered regression model is the best fitting degree,and the prediction accuracy is 83.56%.
作者
高婷婷
GAO Ting-ting(Xishuangbanna Mete�orological Bureau,Jinghong,Yunnan 666100)
出处
《农业灾害研究》
2021年第4期100-102,共3页
Journal of Agricultural Catastrophology
关键词
大气污染
相关性分析
境外火点
有序回归模型
AQI预报
Air pollution
Correlation analysis
Offshore ignition
Ordered regression model
AQI forecast
