摘要
本文针对南丰县代表点的南丰蜜橘黄龙病的发生与气候条件的关系进行相关性分析,使用Excel图表、线性气候倾向率、相关分析等方法分析南丰县气候条件对黄龙病发生的影响,由此确定南丰蜜橘黄龙病发生的有利气候条件指标。从风险基本理论出发,建立了包括气候条件出现概率和柑橘木虱占种植面积比两个环境因子的气候风险模型,并划分了高、中、低风险,基于GIS对南丰蜜橘黄龙病发生气候风险进行了区划。区划结果表明:南丰县琴城镇、莱溪乡、洽湾镇、太源乡为低风险地区,市山镇、桑田镇、太和镇、三溪乡、付坊乡、紫霄镇、白舍镇东部为中风险地区,而白舍镇西部靠近紫霄镇小部分地区为高风险区。
In this paper,the relationship between the occurrence of Huanglongbing of Nanfeng tangerine and climatic conditions in Nanfeng County was analyzed,and the influence of climatic conditions on Huanglongbing in Nanfeng County was analyzed by using Excel chart,linear climate tendency rate,correlation analysis and other methods,so as to determine the favorable climatic conditions for Huanglongbing of Nanfeng tangerine.Based on the basic risk theory,a climate risk model including the probability of occurrence of climatic conditions and the proportion of citrus psyllid to the planting area was established,and the high,medium and low risks were divided.Based on GIS,the climate risk of Huanglongbing of Nanfeng tangerine was regionalized.The results show that Qincheng Town,Laixi Township,Taiyuan Township and Qiawan town are low-risk areas in Nanfeng County,the eastern parts of Shishan town,Sangtian Town,Taihe Town,Sanxi Township,Fufang Town,Zixiao town and Baishe town are medium risk areas,while the western parts of Baishe town near Zixiao town are high-risk areas.
作者
涂婷
李昕
何寿仁
TU Ting(Meteorological Bureau ofNanfeng County,Nanfeng,Jiangxi 344500)
出处
《农业灾害研究》
2021年第4期3-6,共4页
Journal of Agricultural Catastrophology
关键词
南丰县
蜜橘黄龙病
柑橘木虱
气候风险区划
Nanfeng County
Citrus Huanglongbing
Citrus psyllid
Climate risk zoning
