摘要
饲料粮安全问题是当前中国粮食安全问题很重要的一方面,国民食物营养消费结构特征决定我们应当把饲料粮安全上升到一个新的高度。本文基于不同方法测算了饲料粮的生产规模、需求规模和自给水平,在测算生产规模时采用三种方法进行比较,在测算需求规模时对理论需求量、实际消费量分别分析,并将进口畜产品折算为饲料粮的间接需求。研究发现,中国饲料粮生产规模与需求规模均呈明显增长,直接系数法测得的饲料粮产量由2001年的15842.28万吨增长至2019年的27416.72万吨,直接需求增至30915.98万吨,间接需求增至1594.37万吨,产能增长驱动需求自给能力提升但进口增加促使消费自给水平下降。总体来看,中国饲料粮已经从供给不足变为“高位供给、高位进口”并存的局面,应当特别关注饲料粮的结构性供给不足问题。最后,本文从转变思想观念、权衡进口结构、调整畜种结构、拓展进口渠道、强化市场监管方面给出保障策略。
At present,the essence and core of China’s food security problem is the problem of feed and grain security.The characteristics of national food nutrition consumption structure determine that we should raise the feed and grain security to a new height.This paper calculates the production scale,demand scale and self-sufficiency level of feed grain based on different methods,compares the three methods when calculating the production scale,analyzes the theoretical demand and actual consumption respectively when calculating the demand scale,and translates the imported animal products into the indirect demand of feed grain.The study found that both the scale of feed grain production and the scale of demand in China showed significant growth.The output of feed grain measured by the direct coefficient method increased from 158.4228 million tons in 2001 to 274.1672 million tons in 2019,and the direct demand increased to 309.1598 million tons and the indirect demand to 15.9437 million tons.Production capacity growth drives demand self-sufficiency,but import growth drives consumption self-sufficiency down.In general,China’s feed grain supply has changed from insufficient to a situation of“high supply and high import”,and special attention should be paid to the structural shortage of feed grain supply.At last,the paper gives the safeguard strategies from the aspects of changing the ideology,balancing the import structure,adjusting the breed structure,expanding the import channels,and strengthening the market supervision.
作者
熊学振
杨春
XIONG Xuezhen;YANG Chun
出处
《世界农业》
CSSCI
2021年第8期4-12,32,119,共11页
World Agriculture
基金
中国农业科学院科技创新工程项目(ASTIP-IAED-2021-01)
国家自然科学基金项目(71503251)
财政部和农业农村部:国家现代农业产业技术体系资助
中国农业科学院基本科研业务费专项(Y2020ZK03)。
