摘要
为有效推进中国经济和能源系统的低碳转型,考虑减碳方案的系统性、科学性和完整性,提出了CO_(2)净排放量达峰及碳达峰、碳中和平台期的概念,阐明了碳达峰、碳中和目标实现的基本思路以及经济、社会、技术低碳转型过程对目标实现路径的影响,研究了政策框架的调整建议,探讨了需重点关注的问题。提出宜根据行业特点采取产品的物理量碳强度指标、价值量碳强度指标,以及其他能够衡量碳减排成效的指标来设计碳减排路径;我国碳减排的总体趋势是在2030年前达峰后先是波动下降到稳中有降(至2035年左右),然后是平稳下降(至2040年左右),再后是接近线性下降(至2050年左右),最后是加速下降(至2060年),到2060年前实现碳中和。提出应从理顺政府职能、加强顶层设计、完善指标体系、科学核算排放等方面调整现有的政策框架,建立涵盖约束性和指导性指标的多级指标体系等建议。提出应重点关注能源低碳转型中电力系统的重大安全风险、转型系统成本、有序减煤等重点问题。
In order to effectively promote the low-carbon transformation of China's economic and energy systems,considering the systematicness,scientificity and integrity of carbon reduction schemes,two concepts are put forward.One concept is the peaking of net CO_(2) emissions,also called carbon peak,and the other one is the plateau about carbon peak and carbon neutrality.The basic approach to achieve the latter concept's target is expounded,which is with regard to economy,society and the transition process of low-carbon technology.Meanwhile,the adjustment suggestion of policy framework is studied,the tightly focused problems are investigated.It is proposed that the path to reduce carbon emission should be designed according to some definite aspects,such as the physical carbon intensity index and the value carbon intensity index of products which belong to different industries,the other indexes in connection with assessing the efficiency of carbon emission reduction.The general trend of China’s carbon emission reduction is to reach its peak by 2030,followed by a wavelike decrease and a slight decline(to about 2035),and then a steady decline(to about 2040),followed by a approximated linear decline(to about 2050),and finally an accelerated decline(to about 2060)to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.It is presented that the existing policy framework should be adjusted from the aspects of regulated government functions,strengthening top-level design,improving index system,scientifically emission accounting,as well as the suggestion including the establishment of mult-index system,which covers binding indicator and guidance indicator.It is indicated that special attention should be concentrated on some key problems refering to significant safety risks of power system in energy's low carbon transition,systematic cost of transition,ordered coal reduction,etc.
出处
《电力科技与环保》
2021年第3期1-8,共8页
Electric Power Technology and Environmental Protection
基金
国家重点研发计划“大气污染成因与控制技术研究”(2016YFC0208102)。
关键词
碳达峰
碳中和
路径
政策框架
重点问题
carbon peak
carbon neutrality
pathway
policy framework
important problems
