摘要
为提高航空器机场安全管理水平,降低机坪运行风险,根据航空器机坪运行特点与规章要求建立风险预警体系。基于质量管理理论,系统识别影响机坪运行安全的各项风险;以航空器机坪运行时间变量为导向构建动态贝叶斯网络模型和算法,评估风险发生的概率,确定机坪风险预警指标权重,建立预警等级。最后,以南京禄口国际机场飞机擦挂事件为例进行预警分析。研究结果表明:通过分析机坪运行风险,构建预警模型可实现对航空器机坪运行的定量评估,从而有针对性地提供预警安全对策,降低事故率。
In order to improve the safe management level of airport and reduce the risk of apron operation,according to the regulations and characteristics of apron operation to establish the early warning system.Based on the theory of quality management,the risks affecting the safety of apron operation are systematically identified;The dynamic Bayesian network model and algorithm are constructed based on the variable of aircraft apron operation time to evaluate the probability of risk occurrence,determine the weight of apron risk early warning index and establish early warning level;Finally,taking the aircraft collision incident of Nanjing Lukou International Airport as an example,the early warning analysis is carried out.The results show that:through the analysis of apron operation risk,the establishment of early warning model can realize the quantitative evaluation of aircraft apron operation,so as to provide targeted early warning safety countermeasures and reduce the accident rate.
作者
黄炬凯
刘俊杰
熊静
HUANG Ju-kai;LIU Jun-jie;XIONG Jing(School of Air Traffic Management,Civil Aviation Flight University of China,Guanghan Sichuan 618300,China)
出处
《科技和产业》
2021年第5期300-305,共6页
Science Technology and Industry
基金
中国用民航空飞行学院大学生创业创新项目(S201910624115)。
关键词
航空器
机坪运行
贝叶斯网络
风险预警
aircraft
apron operation
Bayesian network
risk early warning
