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科学不确定性、无知与气候责任

Scientific Uncertainty,Ignorance and Climate Responsibility
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摘要 气候责任的认定主要取决于国家或个体行动者的行为与气候变化的事实之间是否能建立起科学的因果关系。气候科学某种程度上的不确定性使对气候责任的认定变得异常复杂。气候科学不确定性的存在可能会导致人们在某些方面的“无知”,但是,在面对全球变暖这样高风险、高概率的环境危机时,忽略由世界上绝大多数的科学家所做出的深思熟虑的判断则是严重的错误。不管人们是否实际预见他们行为的后果,只要科学知识在理论上揭示人们应该预见自己行为的危害,那么,这样的行为就是有过错的,因而是要承担责任的。基于此,我们主张应该把预防原则作为应对像气候变化这样存在不确定性的问题的一个基本原则。 The designation of climate responsibility depends mainly on whether a scientific causation can be established between the behavior of a state or a individual actor and the fact of a climate change.A certain degree of uncertainty in climate science makes the designation of climate responsibility extremely complex.The uncertainty in climate science may make people“ignorance”in some respects,but in the face of global warming as high risk and high probability of environmental crisis,ignoring the deliberate judgement about climate change made by most scientists is a serious mistake.No matter whether people actually foresee the consequences of their actions,as long as scientific knowledge reveals theoretically that people should be able to foresee their own hazards,such behavior is wrong and therefore responsible.Based on this,we advocate that the precautionary principle should be regarded as a basic principle of dealing with the problems of uncertainty as climate change.
作者 陈俊 盛盼奥 Chen Jun;Sheng Panao
出处 《价值论与伦理学研究》 2019年第1期121-135,共15页 Axiology and Ethics
基金 2014湖北大学研究生工作站(哲学学院与湖北省教育考试院联合培养)之阶段性成果。
关键词 全球气候变化 科学不确定性 气候责任 Global Climate Change Scientific Uncertainty Climate Responsibility
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