摘要
导线覆冰舞动是一种影响电网正常运行的灾害性天气。通过对2018年1月25—29日长江中下游地区大范围导线覆冰舞动事故的天气形势、大气层结与云中水成物特征的分析,探讨了导线覆冰舞动的天气成因,进而利用耦合了电线覆冰增长模型的天气研究和预报模式,对导线覆冰厚度及舞动高风险区域的时空分布进行了模拟,结果表明:(1)冷空气与西南暖湿气流在长江中下游地区交汇,该区从地面到700 hPa的温度均低于0℃,冻雨为"过冷暖雨"机制;(2)模拟结果显示覆冰期间地面降水经历了"固态-混合态-固态"的相态转化过程,与观测结果较为一致;(3)耦合了积冰增长预报系统(IFAS)的WRF模式,模拟的各阶段电线积冰厚度的空间分布特征与监测到冻雨天气的气象站点分布较为吻合,覆冰厚度极值与观测结果接近;(4)利用耦合了美国空军气象局诊断方案的WRF模式,根据模拟的积冰厚度与瞬时最大风速,模拟出了导线覆冰舞动高风险区域分布,与电网的观测记录较为吻合。该研究表明模拟的导线覆冰厚度能够反映冻雨过程中电线积冰厚度的时空变化特征,特别是舞动高风险区域分布的成功模拟,对舞动进行提前预警进而降低舞动损失具有重要的实用价值。
The ice-caused conductor galloping is a weather hazard harmful to the operation of the power system.By analyzing the characteristics of synoptic situation,atmospheric stratification and the variation of cloud hydrometeor during the ice-caused conductor galloping episode during January 25th~29th,2018 in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River,the synoptic cause of the episode was investigated.Based on the WRF model coupled with the Ice Acceleration Forecast System(IFAS),the temporal and spatial distribution of the wire icing thickness and the high risk area of conductor galloping were simulated.The following conclusions are got from the research.The cold air mass is mixed with the southwesterly warm air in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River,where the temperature of the surface to 700 hPa are all below 0℃.The freezing rain process is driven by the so-called super-cooled warm rain mechanism.The simulations show that the precipitation type at the ground change from solid phase to mixed phase and then to solid phase again during the time period of wire icing,indicating good agreement with the observation.By the WRF model coupled with the IFAS,the simulated spatial distribution of the wire icing thickness is consistent with the observed freezing rain area.The simulated maximum ice thickness is also proved by the observation.By coupling the AFWA scheme with WRF,the high risk area of conductor galloping is estimated by the simulated ice thickness and the instantaneous wind speed,which matches well with the observation from the State Grid.The results show that the temporal and spatial distribution of wire icing can be indicated from the simulated wire icing thickness,especially in the high risk areas of conductor galloping,which has significant practical value to the forecast and loss reduction of conductor galloping.
作者
朱华
魏璐
陆正奇
韩永翔
ZHU Hua;WEI Lu;LU Zheng-qi;HAN Yong-xiang(Electric Power of Henan,Electric Power Research Institute,Zhengzhou 450000,China;Henan Meteorological Service Centre,Zhengzhou 450003,China;Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters,Key Laboratory for Aerosol-Cloud-Precipitation of China Meteorological Administration,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China)
出处
《科学技术与工程》
北大核心
2021年第7期2974-2981,共8页
Science Technology and Engineering
关键词
导线覆冰舞动
冻雨天气
过冷暖雨机制
电线积冰模型
WRF模式
wire icing and galloping
freezing rain
supercooled warm rain mechanism
ice acceleration forecast system
WRF model
