摘要
日本的对华外交深受国际体系和中美日三角关系的影响。由于中美两个大国在全球层面的战略竞争加剧,以2017年为分水岭,第二次安倍内阁领导下的日本的整体对华外交政策经历了从"战略制衡"向"战术避险"方向的转变。在2017年以前,日本为了联美对华实施"战略制衡",在外交方面,以"印太战略"孤立中国;在安全方面,加强岛屿防卫能力和强化日美同盟;在经济方面,大力支持"跨太平洋伙伴关系协定"和对"一带一路"倡议持冷淡态度。在2017年以后,在中美关系的不确定性增大的情况下,安倍领导下的日本对华实施"战术避险"。在外交方面,加强印太战略的开放性、领导人互访和对华自制;在安全方面,继续强化国防上的内部制衡;在经济方面,有条件地认同"一带一路"倡议并对华展开第三方市场合作。展望未来,令和时代的日本将是一个拥有部分战略自主的中等强国,在日美同盟框架下维持与中国有距离的交往,力图在瞬息万变的国际政治角力中实现日本国家利益的最大化。
Japan’s diplomacy with China under the second Abe administration has been greatly influenced by the international situation and the US-China-Japan strategic triangle.This article argues that Japan,as a secondary power,has been shifting its China policy from"strategic balancing"to"tactical hedging"since 2017,and is adopting a mixed strategy that intends to search for a THIRD strategic choice between the United States and China.Before 2017,Japan adopted a strategic balancing approach by promoting"Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement"(TPP)with the United States,consolidating Self-Defense Forces(SDF)capability on island defense,and downplaying China’s"Belt and Road Initiative".After 2017,given the uncertainty revealed in the US-China relations,Japan has adopted a tactical hedging approach by promoting the openness of the"Indo-Pacific Initiative"and China-Japan top leader summit,further consolidating defense capability,and demonstrating a partially positive attitude towards China’s Belt and Road Initiative.The author thinks that,in the Reiwa Era,Japan will rise to be a Middle Power with increased,while limited,strategic autonomy and is likely to engage with China more deliberately within the framework of Japan–US alliance.
作者
张望
CHEUNG Mong(International Liberal Studies(SILS),Waseda University,Japan)
出处
《国际安全研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第2期86-106,159,共22页
Journal of International Security Studies
关键词
制衡
避险
中日关系
日本对华政策
中美日战略三角
balancing
hedging
Sino-Japanese relations
Japan’s foreign policy
China-US-Japan strategic triangle
