摘要
新冠疫情作为2020年最大的黑天鹅事件,不仅影响了全球经济增长,更是极大冲击了中美两个最大经济体的产业链,两国的餐饮娱乐、交通运输、教育、旅游业等产业,均受到严重影响,两国同时面临着疫情带来的供给侧冲击及外部需求侧冲击的双重压力,但是两国所受到的冲击方向和压力却不尽相同。疫情对美国最大的影响主要体现在第三产业,尤其餐饮、航空、零售、酒店等行业严重受损,而对中国产业的最大影响却不是大家所认为的第三产业,而是对工业造成了最大冲击,仅2020年第一季度就下降了9.6%,远超第三产业的5.2%。进入后疫情时代,中美两国的产业发展,也相应出现了新的趋势,美国教育行业迎来结构性变革,呼吸机短缺,进一步加速制造业回流,新冠治疗药物的短缺,更促使美国从重视生物医药转向也重视原料药生产等基础医药领域。中国的后疫情时代,产业快速恢复的同时,却也暴露出过度依赖中低端制造业、过度依赖贸易出口的产业发展缺陷。因而,从需求侧而言,中国要进一步发展线上产业拉动需求,继续发放消费券刺激消费;从供给侧而言,要加快制造业转型升级;并且要大力推进“双循环”,应对逆全球化回潮趋势。
As the biggest black swan event in 2020,COVID-19 not only affected the global economic growth,but also greatly impacted the industrial chain of the two largest economies in China and the United States.The catering and entertainment,transportation,education,tourism and other industries of the two countries were seriously affected.At the same time,the two countries are facing the dual pressures of supply-side impact and external demand-side impact caused by the epidemic,but the directions and pressures of the shocks are different.The biggest impact of the epidemic on the United States is mainly reflected in the serious damage to the tertiary industry,especially catering,aviation,retail,hotel and other industries,while the biggest impact on China’s industry is not the tertiary industry that everyone think,but the biggest impact on the industry,which fell by 9.6%in the first quarter alone and 5.2%in the tertiary industry.In the post epidemic era,the industrial development of China and the United States has also appeared a new trend.The education industry in the United States has ushered in structural changes.The shortage of ventilator has further accelerated the return of manufacturing industry.The shortage of new crown treatment drugs has prompted the United States to shift its focus from focusing on biomedicine to the production of raw materials and other basic pharmaceutical fields.In the post epidemic era,China’s industries have recovered rapidly,but at the same time,they have also exposed the industrial development defects of excessive dependence on the middle and low-end manufacturing industry and excessive dependence on Trade and export.Therefore,from the demand side,China should further develop online industries to stimulate demand and continue to issue consumption vouchers to stimulate consumption;from the supply side,it should accelerate the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry;and vigorously promote the“double cycle”to deal with the reverse trend of globalization.
作者
李贤
任子飞
LI Xian;REN Zifei(School of Economics,Yunnan University,Kunming 650500,China)
出处
《技术与创新管理》
2021年第1期1-7,共7页
Technology and Innovation Management
基金
2020年度云南省社科规划社会智库项目“新冠肺炎疫情对云南产业发展的影响及对策研究”(SHZK2020301)。
关键词
新冠肺炎
中美贸易
产业链
转型升级
COVID-19
China-Us trade
industrial chain
transformation and upgrading
