摘要
现代社会的不确定性与风险问题如影随形,与追求确定性与可预测性的法治之间存在着极其紧张的关系。本文首先评述近代法律思维带有的决定论倾向及其瓦解,法律不得不面对以发生的或然性为特征的风险与不确定性问题,将危害发生的概率作为确定责任和义务的根据,并加强对偶然的去随机化处理。其次,阐明非确定性、不确定性、风险以及概率计算的一些基本条件,给出概率解释的类型划分及其相应的决策机制。再次,以德沃金的侥幸均等正义论为线索,观察基于概率论与互惠性的法学思维方式及其影响。最后,立足法律实践与法律制度设计总结了概率之于法律决策的可能影响。
The uncertainty and risk are very closely associated with each other in modern society,and there is severe tension between such uncertainty/risks with the pursuit of certainty and predictability of the rule of law.This paper first reviews the determinism tendency and its disintegration in modern legal thinking.The law has to face the risk and uncertainty problems characterized by the probability of occurrence,taking the probability of occurrence of harm as the basis for determining responsibilities and obligations as well as strengthening the randomization of probability.Secondly,this article expounds some basic conditions of uncertainty,risk and probability calculation,and proposes the classification of probability interpretation and its corresponding decision-making mechanism.Thirdly,taking Dworkin's theory of justice as a clue,this article analyses the legal thinking mode and its influence based on probability theory and reciprocity.Finally,based on legal practice and legal system design,this article summarizes possible influence of probability on legal decision-making.
出处
《地方立法研究》
CSSCI
2021年第1期1-18,共18页
Local Legislation Journal
关键词
不确定性
风险
概率
法律决策
侥幸均等正义论
uncertainty
risk
probability
legal decision-making
theory of luck egalitarianism justice
