摘要
运用事件树方法与模糊集理论对产业链协同视角下企业并购风险分析及评价展开研究。分析并购活动过程中各阶段存在的主要风险因素,根据并购过程中的风险事件序列构建产业链协同并购风险事件树分析模型。讨论提出基于模糊集理论的事件发生概率评价算法,依据并购活动序列事件发生概率及所造成损失率计算其风险大小,解决了事件树方法中风险评价值难以量化的问题。通过案例分析进一步指明产业链协同并购活动中的关键风险点,同时印证了该方法的可行性与有效性。最后,根据研究结果提出产业链协同并购风险管控建议。
The event tree analysis method and fuzzy set theory are used to analyze and evaluate the risk of enterprise merger and acquisition(M&A)from the perspective of industrial chain synergy.The main risk factors in each stage of M&A activities are analyzed,and the risk event tree analysis model of industry chain collaborative M&A is constructed according to the risk event sequence in M&A process.Then the probability evaluation algorithm of event occurrence is discussed based on fuzzy set theory and the process of risk value calculation is demonstrated according to the probability of event occurrence and the its loss rate.It solves the problem that it is difficult to quantify the risk evaluation value in the event tree method.Furthermore,it explores the key risk points of the industry chain collaborative M&A by the case study.It surly proves the feasibility and effectiveness of the method.Finally,management suggestions on risk control of industrial chain collaborative M&A are put forward according to the research results.
作者
李光荣
杨锦绣
黄颖
Li Guangrong;Yang Jinxiu;Huang Ying(Business School of Beifang Minzu University,Yinchuan,750021,China;Business School of Fuyang Normal University,Fuyang 236000,Anhui,China)
出处
《技术经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第12期26-35,共10页
Journal of Technology Economics
基金
北方民族大学重点科研项目“分享经济模式下民族地区特色产业协同发展机制与路径研究”(BMDK201705)
国家自然科学基金“产业链金融信用风险致因机理与预警机制研究:以西部地区乳业产业链为例”(71561002)。
关键词
事件树分析
模糊集理论
产业链协同
风险评价
企业并购
event tree analysis
fuzzy set theory
industrial chain synergy
risk assessment
merger and acquisition
