摘要
形成以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局是未来一个时期内的重要发展战略方向。科学评估国民经济发展依靠国内和国际循环的程度,有利于更好理解和把握“双循环”战略的历史性意义,提出针对性的政策举措。文章利用国际投入产出数据,将GDP分解为纯国内循环创造的部分和参与国际循环创造的部分。测算数据表明,中国近年来GDP中依靠国内循环创造的比例从74%稳步提升至83%,同时参与国际循环的竞争力也在不断增强。而从国际经验来看,美国、日本是以国内循环为主的大国自循环模式,西欧国家采取国内弱循环、区域强循环模式,亚洲经济体主要是内部弱循环、国际强循环模式。展望未来,中国应建立更为强大自主的国内循环体系、巩固和发展更具竞争力的国际循环体系,推动形成内外循环互促的大国发展格局。
Forming a new development pattern,in which the domestic circulation and dual circulation(domestic and international circulation)promote each other,is important in the future.How well the dual circulation develops is a good criterion for scientifically evaluating the national economy development.In return,the evaluation will show the significance of the dual circulation so that leaders will have a better understanding of the circulation in order to introduce targeted policies.This article uses international input-output data to decompose China s GDP into two parts:one is created by pure domestic circulations and the other is created by international circulations.The data show that in recent years,the proportion of China s GDP created through domestic circulation has steadily increased from 74%to 83%,and the competitiveness of participating in international circulation has also been continuously increasing.However,the United States and Japan adopt a self-circulation model with domestic circulation as the mainstay.Western European countries adopt a weak domestic circulation and a strong regional circulation model.Asian economies mainly adopt a weak internal circulation and a strong international circulation model.Therefore,the author believes in the future,China should establish a stronger and more independent domestic circulation system,consolidate and develop a more competitive international circulation system,so as to form a large-country development pattern where the internal and the external circulation can promote each other.
作者
陆江源
Lu Jiangyuan(Institute of Economics,NDRC,Beijing 100038,China)
出处
《当代经济管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第12期8-15,共8页
Contemporary Economic Management
基金
国家社会科学基金青年项目《消费与人力资本关联机制及其对创新效率影响研究》(20CJL032)。
关键词
国内国际双循环
投入产出分析
发展战略
循环堵点
dual circulations
input-output analysis
development strategy
circulation blocking point
