摘要
基于标准差椭圆、Moran's I指数及热点分析等方法,研究安徽省县域新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情时空分布特点及空间集聚模式,揭示安徽省疫情发展态势。结果表明:①安徽省新冠肺炎日新增确诊病例数于2020年2月6日达到高点后呈下降趋势;②截至2020年2月27日,蚌山区、瑶海区、龙子湖区、临泉县、利辛县等区县累计确诊病例数较高,超过40人;龙子湖区、蚌山区和禹会区,新冠肺炎发病率最高;③标准差椭圆分析发现疫情呈西北-东南方向分布,椭圆中心向西北方向移动;④2020年1月30日起,疫情分布呈现明显的空间集聚性,热点区县数量呈先增加后波动性降低态势,2月5日达到峰值。
The methods of standard deviational ellipse(SDE),Moran's I and hot spot analysis were used to delineate the distribution and aggregation of COVID-19 in time and space in different regions of Anhui Province,China.The results showed that the number of confirmed cases reached peak on February 6,2020,and the total number of confirmed cases was over 40 in Bengshan District,Yaohai District,Longzihu District,Linquan County and Lixin County by the end of February 27,2020.The highest incidence of COVID-19 occurred at Longzihu District,Bengshan District and Yuhui District,followed by Huoshan County,He County,Yaohai District and Huaishang District.The Standard deviation ellipse(SDE)of the epidemic was northwest-southeast,and then moved obviously clockwise.The area of the SDE increased first and then decreased,and its center moved to northwest rapidly.The results of Moran's I showed that the distribution of COVID-19 had obvious aggregated from January 30,2020,with strong fluctuation.The results of hot spot analysis indicated that the number of hot spot counties increased first and then decreased,reaching the peak on February 5.
作者
孙建平
胡文海
陈若尘
徐大永
SUN Jian-ping;HU Wen-hai;CHEN Ruo-chen;XU Da-Yong(School of Geography and Planning,Chizhou University,Chizhou 247100,China;School of Tourism and History Culture,Chizhou University,Chizhou 247100,China;Chizhou Planning and Designing Institute,Chizhou 247100,China)
出处
《安徽师范大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
2020年第6期573-579,共7页
Journal of Anhui Normal University(Natural Science)
基金
安徽省哲学社会科学规划项目(AHSKQ2018D90)
国家级大学生创新创业训练项目(202011306006).
关键词
新型冠状病毒肺炎
时空格局
标准差椭圆
空间自相关
安徽省
COVID-19
spatiotemporal distribution structure
standard deviation ellipse
spatial autocorrelation
Anhui Province
