摘要
为合理判别区域旱灾风险的动态状态和脆弱性指标,提出用引力减法集对势、风险矩阵、属性识别和级别特征值法相结合构建旱灾风险动态分析评价模型。将该模型应用于山东省,与已有的指数法的评价结果进行对比验证,结果表明:这4种方法在山东省旱灾风险系统中的应用结果是一致的,1999—2005年山东省旱灾风险等级总体有所降低,但在2002年旱灾风险等级突增为3级;引力减法集对势和级别特征值法的结合对各指标分析更具解释性、更精细,结果符合实际;属性识别法以及建立在其基础上的风险矩阵合成旱灾风险等级简便直观、结果符合实际,但在评价等级只有3级时属性识别法及风险矩阵的结果易偏粗略;引力减法集对势诊断出森林覆盖率、第三产业产值比率、污水达标排放率和降水量是需要山东省重点调控与监测的指标;这4种方法的结合为评估区域旱灾风险及发展趋势、识别脆弱性指标提供了新途径。
In order to distinguish the dynamic state and vulnerability index of regional drought risk reasonably,a dynamic analysis and evaluation model of drought risk was proposed by combining the gravitational subtraction based on set pair situation with risk matrix,attribute identification and level eigenvalue method.The model was applied to Shandong Province and compared with the evaluation results of the index method.The results show that the application results of the four methods in the drought risk system of Shandong Province are consistent.The results of the four methods show that the drought risk level of Shandong Province is reduced effectively from 1999 to 2005,but the drought risk level increases to level 3 in 2002.Combined with the analysis of each index,the results are more explanatory and more precise,and the results are in line with the reality.The attribute identification method and the risk matrix based on it are simple and intuitive,and the results are consistent with the reality,but when the evaluation level is only three levels,the results of attribute identification method and risk matrix are easy to be rough;The gravitational subtraction set pair situation can diagnose forest coverage,tertiary industry output ratio,sewage discharge rate and precipitation are the key indicators to be controlled and monitored in Shandong Province.The combination of these four methods provides a new way to assess regional drought risk,development trend and identify vulnerability indicators.
作者
金菊良
刘鑫
周戎星
崔毅
张浩宇
陈梦璐
宁少尉
JIN Juliang;LIU Xin;ZHOU Rongxing;CUI Yi;ZHANG Haoyu;CHEN Menglu;NING Shaowei(School of Civil Engineering,Hefei University of Technology,Hefei 230009,China;Institute of Water Resources and Environmental Systems Engineering,Hefei University of Technology,Hefei 230009,China)
出处
《人民黄河》
CAS
北大核心
2020年第12期7-11,28,共6页
Yellow River
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC1502405)
山东省重点研发计划项目(2017GSF20101)
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51779067,51709071)
安徽省高等学校自然科学研究项目(KJ2019A0880)。
关键词
旱灾风险
动态分析评价
引力减法集对势
风险矩阵
属性识别法
级别特征值法
山东省
drought risk
dynamic analysis and evaluation
gravitational subtraction set pair situation
risk matrix
attribute recognition method
level eigenvalue method
Shandong Province
