摘要
结合灰色预测模型和Markov预测模型相的优点,建立灰色Markov预测模型,对安徽省城镇居民人均可支配收入进行预测。与灰色预测模型相比,灰色Markov预测模型能提高预测精度,平均相对误差从3.159 2%减少到1.436 9%。结合2007年到2018年的数据预测出2019年和2020年的预测值分别为37 875.24元和41 654.8元。
In this paper, we adjoin the grey prediction model and Markov prediction model and use the advantages of the two models to construct a grey Markov prediction model to predict per capital annual disposable income of urban households in Anhui Province. Compared with the grey prediction model, the grey Markov prediction model can improve the prediction accuracy. The average relative error is reduced from 3.159 2% to 1.436 9%. Finally, combined with the data from 2007 to 2018, the forecast values for 2019 and 2020 are 37 875.24 and 41 654.8, respectively.
作者
滕秀花
戴林送
TENG Xiuhua;DAI Linsong(School of Mathematics and Physics,Anqing Normal University,Anqing 246133,China)
出处
《安庆师范大学学报（自然科学版）》
2020年第4期24-26,共3页
Journal of Anqing Normal University(Natural Science Edition)
关键词
灰色系统
MARKOV过程
城镇居民人均可支配收入
预测
grey system
Markov processes
per capital annual disposable income of urban households
prediction
