摘要
中国经济在结构优化、方式转变与质量效益提升的过程中存在增速减缓风险,双支柱政策在调控金融周期波动过程中是否会对经济增长产生较大负向影响值得关注。本文在构建金融状况指数的基础上,对金融周期状态进行了识别,并采用马尔科夫区制转移向量自回归(MS-VAR)模型分析了金融周期处于不同状态时双支柱政策调控对产出的影响。实证结果显示:金融周期处于不同状态时双支柱政策调控对产出的影响存在差异。数量型货币政策与以流动性比例监管以及核心一级资本充足率为工具的宏观审慎政策配合时,宽松的货币政策在金融高涨期促进产出增长效果明显,但与以超额存款准备金率为工具的宏观审慎政策配合时,宽松的货币政策在金融紧缩期促进产出增长效果更明显。因此,在制定与实施双支柱调控政策前,应全面做好政策效果评估,充分考虑所处金融周期状态与经济周期状态,选择合适的政策组合。
By constructing the financial condition index FCI,this paper identifies the state of the financial cycle and uses the MS-VAR model to analyze the impact of the two-pillar policy regulation on economic growth when the financial cycle is in different states.The empirical results show that there are differences in the impact of two-pillar policy regulation on economic growth when the financial cycle is in different states.When the quantitative monetary policy is coordinated with the macro-prudential policy of liquidity ratio regulation and the capital adequacy ratio,the easy monetary policy promotes economic growth during the financial boom period,but when coordinated with the excess deposit reserve ratio,the easy monetary policy is more effective in promoting economic growth during the financial bust period.Therefore,in order to select an appropriate policy combination,it is necessary to comprehensively evaluate the policy effect,fully consider the state of the financial cycle and the economic cycle,before implementing them.
作者
金成晓
李梦嘉
JIN Chengxiao;LI Mengjia(Center of Quantitative Economics,Jilin University,Changchun 130012,China;Business School,Jilin University,Changchun 130012,China;Department of Economics and Management,Tangshan Normal University,Tangshan 063000,China)
出处
《西安交通大学学报（社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第6期1-12,共12页
Journal of Xi'an Jiaotong University：Social Sciences
基金
教育部规划基金项目(19YJA790036)。
关键词
金融周期
双支柱政策调控
货币政策
宏观审慎
产出响应
financial cycle
two-pillar regulation
monetary policy
macro-prudential policy
output response
