摘要
利用熵权法、变异系数、MK突变检验、多次平滑指数模型、地统计学等方法对北京市高端住宅市场之一的孙河高端住宅市场价格进行了研究。结果表明:孙河高档楼盘占55%以上。通过变异系数法对住宅价格稳定性进行分析,其中稳定性楼盘占70%。2月、8—10月为孙河乡住宅价格突变时间节点,孙河乡房价整体呈现“南北高,中间低”。机场高速沿线600~1600 m房价最高,机场高速对孙河住宅价格影响最大。物业费对高端住宅价格解释力最大,各内在因素交互作用结果强于单变量解释力结果。利用熵权法对楼盘综合评价打分具有一定合理性;孙河住宅价格空间异质性明显,呈现显著的集聚模式;孙河乡限房价政策的逐步放松、交通等基础设施的改善均对该地区楼市具有显著的积极作用;政府应分区域、分性质、分趋势制定楼市调整政策,坚持宏观把握大局、中观市场决定、微观精细调控三级防控体系,实现“房住不炒”的根本宗旨。
In this study,entropy weight method,coefficient of variation,MK mutation test,multiple smoothing index model,geostatistics and other methods are used to study the market price of high-quality housing in Sunhe Township.The research results show that high-grade real estate accounts for more than 55%in Sunhe Township.Through the coefficient of variation method to analyze the stability of housing prices,in which the stable real estate accounts for about 70%.February and August to October are the time nodes of housing price mutation in Sunhe Township;the overall housing price in Sunhe Township is“high in the north and south and low in the middle”.The price of 600~1600 m along the airport expressway is the highest,and the airport expressway has the greatest impact on the housing price in Sunhe Township.Property fee has the most explanatory power on high-quality housing price,and the interaction result of various internal factors is stronger than that of single variable.The results show that the entropy weight method is reasonable for the comprehensive evaluation of real estate;the spatial heterogeneity of housing prices in Sunhe Township is obvious,showing a significant agglomeration pattern;the gradual relaxation of housing price restriction policy in Sunhe Township,and the improvement of transportation and infrastructure have a significant positive effect on the local property market;the government should formulate the property market adjustment policy according to the region,nature and trend,and adhere to the macro-control and the meso-market,and the three-level prevention and control system of micro fine regulation and control,and to realize the fundamental purpose of“housing without speculation”.
作者
郭晶鹏
冯振威
陈鸿
陈志端
刘淑霞
吴若昊
何金锋
李航程
GUO Jingpeng;FENG Zhenwei;CHEN Hong;CHEN Zhiduan;LIU Shuxia;WU Ruohao;HE Jinfeng;LI Hangcheng(Institute for Technology Innovation,China Eco-city Academy Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100048,China;Department of Land Business Research,Beijing Guosheng Real Estate Evaluation Co.,Ltd.Beijing 100081,China;Faculty of Earth Resources,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan 430074,China;School of Architecture and Urban Planning,Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Beijing 100048,China;School of Economics,Business College of Shanxi University,Taiyuan 030031,China)
出处
《地域研究与开发》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第5期64-69,共6页
Areal Research and Development
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(17YJC710020)
国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(51808024)。
关键词
住宅价格
时空特征
驱动机制
ESDA
地理探测器
北京市孙河乡
housing price
spatio-temporal characteristics
mechanism
ESDA
geodetector
Sunhe Township
Beijing City
