摘要
基于长江重庆海事局的航运交通事故数据、流量数据和管制数据,长江航道测量中心的航道基础地理信息数据,重庆市气象信息与技术保障中心的能见度观测资料,利用加权综合、层次分析等方法及GIS空间分析技术,开展长江重庆航道大雾灾害风险评估与区划研究.结果表明:长江重庆航道大雾灾害风险等级呈现出“自西向东,先增后减”的变化趋势,中等及以上风险的大雾灾害航段主要位于江津至忠县一带,约占长江重庆航道总长的59%,其中涪陵、丰都航段为高风险密集区,航程占比6%左右.利用长江重庆航道因大雾天气造成交通事故的资料进行检验,发现交通事故频次与灾害风险等级空间分布的正相关关系有统计学意义,证明长江重庆航道大雾灾害风险评估结果及区划具有一定合理性.
Based on shipping traffic accident data,flow data and control data from the Chongqing Maritime Bureau,as well as basic geographic data from the Changjiang Waterway Survey Center and visibility observation data from the Chongqing Meteorological Information Center,risk assessment and regionalization of fog disasters on the Changjiang waterway in Chongqingwas conducted using the synthetic weighted mark method,analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and ArcGIS spatial analysis techniques.The results of this study indicated that the risk grades for fog disasters show an evolving trend from west to east,first increasing and then decreasing.The risk section of the medium(or greater)zone accounts for 59%of the journey distance,and is mainly located in the area from Jiangjin to Zhongxian,within which the Fuling-Fengdu section is a high-risk dense area,accounting for around 6%of the total journey distance.A test of the above results with the data of heavy fog-caused traffic accidents on Chongqing Changjiang waterway showed a significant positive correlation between the frequency of traffic accidents and the risk grade of fog disaster zones,thus suggesting that the risk assessment and regionalization of fog disasters in the Chongqing waterway of the Changjiang River is reasonable and well-founded.
作者
陈施吉
李家启
王远谋
郑捷
高腾飞
CHEN Shi-ji;LI Jia-qi;WANG Yuan-mou;ZHENG Jie;GAO Teng-fei(Chongqing Meteorological Service Center,Chongqing 401147,China;Chongqing Maritime Bureau,Chongqing 401121,China)
出处
《西南大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第9期165-172,共8页
Journal of Southwest University(Natural Science Edition)
基金
全国气象防灾减灾标准化技术委员会气象标准项目(QX/T-2018-15)
重庆市气象局智慧气象技术创新团队项目(ZHCXTD-201814).
关键词
大雾灾害
长江
海事
风险评估
区划
fog disaster
the Yangtze River
maritime
risk assessment
regionalization
