摘要
为降低农村公路交叉口事故风险,提取环境、道路、设施、车型和违法行为特征作为自变量,以事故形态和事故严重程度为因变量,构建考虑因变量内在关联的双变量Probit模型,分析二者的相关性,并识别显著影响因素。结果表明:农村公路交叉口交通事故形态和严重程度呈负相关关系,单车事故的死亡率更高;线形越好,隔离、控制设施越完备,事故严重性越低;车型越大,事故后果越严重;违法行为增加了发生致死性单车事故的概率。在交叉口处增设安全保障设施,对相交公路等级差异较大的路口实行限速管理,加强对大型车辆和摩托车的安全管理,加强对无证驾驶行为的处罚,可以改善农村公路交叉口安全水平。
In order to reduce crash risks at intersections on rural highways,with environment,highway,facilities,vehicle types and illegal behaviors extracted as independent variables,pattern and severity of crashes taken as dependent variables,a bivariate Probit model was established.Then,intrinsic correlation of these two variables was analyzed and significant influencing factors were identified.The results show that there is a negative correlation between crash pattern and severity,and death rate of single-vehicle accidents is higher.The better road alignment is and the more well-equipped isolation and control facilities are,the lower crash severity is,while the bigger vehicles are,the more serious crash becomes.Besides,traffic offence increases probability of fatal single-vehicle accidents.Safety of intersections on rural highway can by improved by measures such as installing safety facilities,implementing speed-limit management at intersections of highways with significant grade difference,strengthening security control of oversize vehicles and motorcycles,and increasing penalties for driving without license.
作者
赵丹
马社强
张雨萌
韩凤春
ZHAO Dan;MA Sheqiang;ZHANG Yumeng;HAN Fengchun(School of Traffic Management,People’s Public Security University of China,Beijing 102163,China)
出处
《中国安全科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第7期146-151,共6页
China Safety Science Journal
基金
2020年中央基本科研业务费项目(2020JKF202)
中国人民公安大学专项(2020JWCX13)。
