摘要
文中介绍了突变理论基本原理及评价方法,根据长江水域通航环境特点,构建了长江分段水域通航安全评价指标体系,并将其应用于长江常熟段通航安全评价中。结果表明,该方法评价结果与应用较成熟的模糊综合评价结果基本一致,验证了突变理论方法应用于长江分段水域通航安全评价的可行性。突变理论评价法减少人为主观因素且计算简便,为内河水域区域性通航安全评价提供了新方法。
The paper introduces the fundamentals and evaluation method of the Catastrophe Theory.Based on the theory,it proposes the index system of navigation safety along Yangtze River according to the characteristics of navigation environment.It applies the system and method to the safety evaluation of the Changshu section of Yangtze River.The results obtained using such an evaluation method is consistent with that derived from fuzzy assessment,a relatively mature methodology,which proves the feasibility of this evaluation method.Thus,the proposed method is easy for calculation and the influence of subjective factors on assessment can be minimized,providing a new solution for the evaluation of navigation safety along regional areas of inland waters.
作者
刘振东
杨善利
LIU Zhen-dong;YANG Shan-li(China Maritime Safety Administration,Beijing 100736,China)
出处
《中国海事》
2020年第9期40-43,共4页
China Maritime Safety
关键词
长江
通航安全
突变理论
评价
Yangtze River
navigation safety
Catastrophe Theory
evaluation
