摘要
我国区域轨道交通进入了一个高速发展期,网络化运营条件下,突发事件造成的影响区域更大,后果更加严重。如何有效分析救援能力、完善应急救援管理方法、提高应急救援能力成为研究热点。本文以应急救援的静态影响因素与动态演化过程为基础,构建应急救援效能的系统动力学模型,通过Vensim软件对系统动力学模型进行仿真,分析时间延误因素、信息传递因素对救援效能的影响,利用OODA决策环理论进行应急救援联动机理研究,提出了应急救援效能的改善措施。仿真结果可以直观表现救援效能的动态演化过程和时间延误因素、信息传递因素对救援效能的作用机理。相关研究对提高突发事件应对能力、降低突发事故伤害和改善应急救援效能具有一定理论价值。
China’s regional rail transit system has entered a phase of rapid development.As the system continues to expand,accidents impact increasingly larger areas and result in more severe consequences.Therefore,research has become focused on methods for effectively analyzing and improving emergency rescue capabilities and management.Using Vensim software,this study developed a system dynamics model of emergency rescue efficiency based on the static factors of influence and the dynamic evolution of the emergency rescue process.The influences of time delay and information transmission on rescue efficiency were analyzed.The emergency rescue linkage mechanism was studied by applying the Observe–Orient–Decide–Act(OODA)decision ring theory,and measures to improve emergency rescue efficiency are suggested.The simulation provided visual representations of the dynamic evolution of the rescue efficiency.It is hoped that the study results can be applied to improving emergency response capabilities,reducing injuries in emergency situations,and improving emergency rescue efficiency.
作者
唐昭
程学庆
迟明
高鹏
刘展汝
TANG Zhao;CHENG Xue-qing;CHI Ming;GAO Peng;LIU Zhan-ru(School of Transportation and Logistics,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 611756,China;Shenzhen Pingshan District Traffic Track Management Center,Shenzhen 518118,China)
出处
《交通运输工程与信息学报》
2020年第3期162-171,共10页
Journal of Transportation Engineering and Information
基金
国家重点研发计划(VP99QT1136Y18002)。
关键词
应急救援
效能分析
系统动力学
OODA决策环
仿真研究
emergency rescue
effectiveness analysis
system dynamics
OODA decision ring
simulation research
