摘要
为了探究玉溪复杂地形下烤烟种植的低温冷害风险,规避气象灾害带来的影响和损失,利用玉溪七县二区13个烤烟气象观测站2009—2018年常规气象观测资料、社会经济数据等,综合危险性、敏感性、易损性、防灾减灾能力4个评价因子构建玉溪烤烟低温冷害风险评估模型,借助GIS平台进行风险评价和区划。结果表明:1)灾害因子危险性表现为东北部较高、西南部较低,成熟采烤期较移栽伸根期危险性高。2)孕灾环境敏感性由西南向东北递减,大部区域敏感性在中等偏上;西部、北部地区承灾体易损性较高,中部地区较低;防灾减灾能力呈东高西低。3)综合风险评价结果表明,大部分区域在中等及中等气象风险以下,对比不同县区,江川区、澄江县、新平县东部、华宁县北部为中风险-高风险区;易门县、红塔区、通海县、峨山县为低-次高风险区。
In order to explore the chilling damage risk of tobacco planting in the complex terrain of Yuxi and avoid the impact and loss caused by meteorological disasters,this paper uses the conventional meteorological observation data and social economic data of 13 tobacco meteorological observation stations in 7 counties and 2 districts of Yuxi from 2009 to 2018 to build the risk assessment model of chilling damage in Yuxi based on four evaluation factors:risk,sensitivity,vulnerability,disaster prevention and mitigation ability.The GIS platform was used for risk assessment and regionalization.The results showed that:(1)the risk distribution of chilling damage to tobacco planting in Yuxi area was higher in the northeast and lower in the southwest,and the disaster risk decreased from transplanting and root extension stage to mature picking and baking stage.(2)The environmental sensitivity of disaster forming decreased from southwest to northeast,and most of the regional sensitivities were above average;the vulnerability of disaster bearing body was higher in the west and north,and lower in the middle;the disaster prevention and mitigation capacity was higher in the east and lower in the west.(3)The results of comprehensive risk assessment showed that most regions were moderate and below moderate meteorological risk.Comparing different counties and districts,Jiangchuan district,Chengjiang county,the east of Xinping county,and the north of Huaning county are moderate risk-high risk areas;Yimen county,Hongta district,Tonghai county and Eshan county are low-secondary high risk areas,which could provide basis for disaster prevention and reduction of tobacco planting.
作者
王秀珍
景元书
谢新乔
杨继周
李湘伟
朱云聪
胡保文
田育天
梅玲丽
WANG Xiuzhen;JING Yuanshu;XIE Xinqiao;YANG Jizhou;LI Xiangwei;ZHU Yuncong;HU Baowen;TIAN Yutian;MEI Lingli(College of Applied Meteorology,Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;Collaborative Innovation Center of Meteorological Disaster Forecasting Warning and Assessment/Key Laboratory of Agricultural Meteorology in Jiangsu,Nanjing 210044,China;Raw Material Department,Hongta Tobacco Co.,Ltd.,Yuxi,653100,China)
出处
《河南农业大学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第4期704-710,共7页
Journal of Henan Agricultural University
基金
云南红塔集团项目(S-6019001)
中国科学院数字地球重点实验室开放基金项目(2018LDE003)。
关键词
烤烟
低温冷害
风险评价与区划
玉溪
tobacco
chilling damage
risk evaluation and zonation
Yuxi
