摘要
研究目标:量化新冠肺炎疫情对我国宏观经济和行业产出的影响以及政府宏观应对措施的有效性。研究方法:利用以中国2017年投入产出表为数据基础构建的CGE模型,引入五条疫情冲击路径和三项宏观应对措施进行模拟分析。研究发现:(1)疫情对宏观经济冲击较大,且对就业(-1.70%)的冲击要大于对GDP(-1.43%),对内需(投资-2.22%、居民消费-0.87%)的冲击要大于对外需(出口-1.90%);疫情对产业的影响是全方位的但程度存在非均匀性;在供需两侧冲击中,供给侧冲击是主导影响路径。(2)宏观应对措施有效减缓GDP(-0.90%)和就业(-0.94%)损失,内需也得到改善,但存在造成物价(1.17%)上涨、外需(-6.23%)恶化以及加剧行业产出损失之间差距问题。上述意味着宏观应对措施在宏观层面和行业层面均存在权衡关系。研究创新:基于一般均衡理论框架,测算每条路径的影响,分解每项措施的效果,获得一般性结论。研究价值:为完善重大突发公共卫生事件经济调节机制提供决策参考。
Research Objectives:This paper quantifies the impact of COVID-19 outbreak on Chinese economy and evaluates the effectiveness of the government's macroeconomic countermeasures for the economic recovery after the outbreak.Research Methods:We construct a China CGE model based on the Input-Output Table of China in 2017,and introduce five main channels of COVID-19 and three macroeconomic countermeasures into the model.Research Findings:(1)The outbreak seriously damaged Chinese economy with greater impact on employment(-1.70%)than on GDP(-1.43%),and greater impact on domestic demand(investment-2.22%,household consumption-0.87%)than on external demand(export-1.90%),and with a comprehensive but heterogeneity impact on output of production sectors.The negative impact on Chinese economy are mainly driven by the supply-side shocks.(2)Government's macroeconomic countermeasures could effectively reduce GDP loss(-0.90%)and employment decline(-0.94%),and improve domestic demand.However,the countermeasures show side effects,although unintentionally,with a rising CPI(1.17%),worsening export(-6.23%)and further amplified gaps among industrial output loss.This indicates that policy trade-offs exist both on macroeconomy level and industry level.Research Innovations:This paper comprehensively estimates the impact on Chinese economy and specifically measures the impact of each of the five channels and effect of each of the three countermeasures.Research Value:It helps to better understand and improve the economic countermeasures policy-making of major public health emergencies.
作者
周梅芳
刘宇
张金珠
崔琦
Zhou Meifang;Liu Yu;Zhang Jinzhu;Cui Qi(School of Economics,Beijing Technology and Business University;Institutes of Science and Development,Chinese Academy of Sciences;School of Public Policy and Management,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences;School of Economics&Management,Beijing Forestry University;School of Economics and Resource Management,Beijing Normal University)
出处
《数量经济技术经济研究》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第8期24-41,共18页
Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(项目编号:71974186,71903014)
国家重点研发计划(项目编号:2016YFA0602500)
北京工商大学青年教师科研启动基金项目(项目编号:QNJJ2020-33)的资助。
