摘要
利用1900年以来云南地区历史地震灾害人员受伤数据,初步分析了地震受伤人数与震级、烈度、发震时间、人口密度和次生灾害之间的关系;基于云南地震灾害的区域差异突出的特点,选取人口密度、地均GDP、地质灾害易发性作为风险评估指标,运用重分类、层次分析法和GIS空间分析法将云南地区地震灾害人员受伤风险分为地震灾害人员受伤高风险区、地震灾害人员受伤中风险区和地震灾害人员受伤低风险区;采用最小二乘法拟合建立了各风险区地震受伤人数关于震级和极震区烈度的评估模型,并通过2008年以来26次地震对模型进行了检验,结果表明两种地震受伤评估模型均具有一定可靠性,可用于震后1~2 h内快速评估地震受伤人数。
In this paper we firstly analyze the correlation between the number of the injured and the factors such as magnitude,intensity,original time,population density,and the secondary disasters in the earthquake events in Yunnan since 1900.Considering the earthquake disasters’distinct regional differences in Yunnan,we set population density,GDP per square kilometer,and geological disaster susceptibility as risk assessment indexes,and by using secondary classification method,analytic hierarchy process,and GIS spatial analysis method,we divide Yunnan into 3 parts:high-risk area,medium-risk area,and low-risk area to illustrate the people’s injury risk.Then in these three areas,we successively fit the relationship between the number of the injured and the magnitude,the intensity in meizoseismal area using Least Square method and get two evaluation models.Finally we use the two models to assess the number of the injured people in the 26 historical earthquake events since 2008.Comparing the assessment results with the actual number,we find that the two models are reliable for the fast assessment of the number of the injured in 1~2 hours after the earthquake.
作者
和仕芳
于江
余庆坤
张方浩
邓树荣
杜浩国
HE Shifang;YU Jiang;YU Qingkun;ZHANG Fanghao;DENG Shurong;DU Haoguo(Yunnan Earthquake Agency,Kunming 650224,China)
出处
《华北地震科学》
2020年第3期60-68,共9页
North China Earthquake Sciences
基金
国家重点研发计划课题“川滇地震重点监视防御区应急协同技术示范”(2018YFC1504505)
2017年云南省地震局青年基金“云南地区地震灾害受伤人数快速评估方法研究”(2017k15)。
关键词
云南地震灾害
受伤人数
快速评估
分区
earthquake disasters in Yunnan
number of the injured
fast assessment
zoning
