摘要
房地产业属于资金密集型产业,其开发投资资金很大一部分依托于银行借贷。二者之间存在一定的联系。本文选取安徽省1999-2017年房地产价格与银行信贷的相关数据,分析了二者的现实表现,构建了VAR模型,并考察了二者的动态关系。结果显示:银行信贷与房地产价格之间没有双向格兰杰原因,银行信贷的滞后期可以预示房地产价格;反之不能。房地产价格对自身有促进作用,对银行信贷有长期的抑制作用,且二者的变化主要由自身决定。
The real estate industry is a capital-intensive industry,and a large part of its development and investment funds depend on bank lending.Therefore,there is a certain connection between the two.The relevant data of real estate price and bank credit in Anhui province from 1999 to 2017 were selected to analyze their real performance and construct VAR model to investigate their dynamic relationship.The results show that there is no two-way granger reason between bank credit and real estate price,and the lag period of bank credit can predict real estate price,and vice versa.The real estate price has a promoting effect on itself and a long-term restraining effect on bank credit,and the change of the two is mainly determined by itself.
作者
吴紫琳
朱剑峰
WU Zilin;ZHU Jianfeng(School of Economics,Anhui University,Hefei Anhui 230601,China;School of Economics,Fuyang Normal University,Fuyang Anhui 236037,China)
出处
《阜阳师范大学学报（自然科学版）》
2020年第3期72-78,共7页
Journal of Fuyang Normal University:Natural Science
基金
安徽省科学规划重点项目(AHSKZ2018D15)资助。
