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有限理性与不确定性视域下基层产业扶贫的决策过程分析——基于豫南石村的个案研究 被引量:16

An Analysis of the Decision-Making Process of Industrial Poverty Alleviation from the Perspective of Bounded Rationality and Uncertainty——A Case Study Based on the Village Shi in Southern Henan Province
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摘要 近年来中央加大对地方转移支付力度,出现的一个普遍现象是资源输入到乡村基层却无法有效承接。表现在产业扶贫中则是贫困村有大量的资金,不愿、不能却又不得不进行产业探索。研究基于豫南石村的个案观察,发现村庄通过自主探索和经验学习等方式来应对外部的不确定性并拓展理性,但在决策过程中又产生了更多内部的不确定性,致使产业或陷入发展困境,或偏离最初扶贫目标。研究运用组织决策过程理论与经验进行深度对话揭示出:长时段与短时段两种决策模式中的非均衡矛盾,"公平与效率钟摆"引发的周期性目标替代,组织内外决策产生的"自主性吸纳"困境,以及发展与政绩之间的"压力型适应"悖论,是推动产业向不同方向发展的内在根源。产业扶贫即将结束,各方注意力开始转向产业振兴,但基层面临的决策难题和背后的结构性因素并未发生实质改变。 With the central government has increased the amount of transfer payments to local governments in recent years,a common situation has occurred is that the imported resources cannot be effectively absorbed by rural basic-level governments.Specifically,the poor villages had been given a large amount of funds by superior governments,but had no ability,aspiration and initiative to develop the poverty alleviation industry.A case study in southern Henan province found that villages responded to external uncertainties and expanded their rationality through independent exploration and empirical learning.However,in the decision-making process,more internal uncertainties were generated,which caused the industry to fall into development difficulties or deviate from the goal of original poverty alleviation.The study conducted an in-depth dialogue with the practical decision-making process theory and practical experience then found that:Non-equilibrium contradiction in long time and short time decision-making models,periodic targets replacement triggered by the"fairness and efficiency pendulum",the dilemma of"autonomous absorption"arising from internal and external decisions and the paradox of"pressure-type adaptation"between development and political achievements.These mechanisms are all internal reasons for promoting the development of industries in different directions.Industrial poverty alleviation is coming to an end,all attention has gradually turned to the revitalization of rural industry,but the decision-making problems faced by the basic-level governments and the structural factors behind them have not changed substantially.
作者 梁辰 余成龙 Liang Chen;Yu Chenglong(School of International and Public Affairs,Shanghai Jiao Tong University,Shanghai,200030,China)
出处 《公共管理学报》 CSSCI 北大核心 2020年第3期88-99,171,共13页 Journal of Public Management
关键词 产业扶贫 组织决策 不确定性 有限理性 产业振兴 Industrial Poverty Alleviation Policy Organizational Decision-Making Bounded Rationality Rural Industrial Revitalization
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