摘要
本文通过构建非洲猪瘟舆情指数以作为疫情变动的测度指标,基于2018年8月—2019年6月的周度数据,运用矢量自回归模型(VAR),利用Granger因果检验、脉冲响应等计量方法,探讨非洲猪瘟舆情指数变动对于畜禽肉类产品价格波动的动态影响。分析结果表明,非洲猪瘟舆情会对不同的肉类产品价格造成影响,但不同的肉类产品所受到的冲击和影响不同,且这种影响具备一定的时变性;非洲猪瘟舆情对于猪肉价格和鸡肉价格冲击最大,其次是鸭肉,最后是牛肉和羊肉,羊肉所受到的影响最小;非洲猪瘟舆情对于肉类市场价格的冲击作用迅速,对除猪肉以外肉类价格影响的持续期不长;非洲猪瘟舆情指数变动对于各种肉类都存在着正向和负向相结合的影响,且这种影响在后期存在反转效应;非洲猪瘟疫情的信息在肉类产业的传导较为顺畅。基于此,政府应将非洲猪瘟舆情纳入畜禽市场价格预警系统,加强疫情监控力度;相关部门应积极协助相关企业,对疫情的网络舆情进行有序引导;相关企业应该严控禽肉产能,避免禽肉无序扩张生产、供求失衡。
Based on the weekly data from August 2018 to June 2019,this paper constructed an African swine fever public opinion index as the measurement indicator of the epidemic situation and applied the VAR model,the Granger causality test,the impulse response and other measurement methods to explore the dynamic impacts of the change of public opinion index of African swine fever on the price fluctuation of livestock and poultry meat products.Results indicate that the public opinion of African swine fever affects the prices of different meat products,but the impulses and impacts of different meat products are different and dynamic.Among them,the public attention on African swine fever epidemic has the greatest impact on pork price and chicken price,followed by duck meat,and finally beef and lamb.Lamb price has received the least impact.African swine fever public opinion has a rapid impact on the price of meat market,and the impact on the price of meat other than pork does not last for a long time.The change of African swine fever public opinion index has a combination of positive and negative effects on various meats,and this effect has a reverse effect in the later period.The information of African swine fever epidemic can be transmitted smoothly in the meat industry.Based on this research,it is suggested that the government should incorporate African swine fever public opinion into the price early warning system of livestock and poultry market to strengthen the monitoring of the epidemic.Relevant departments should actively assist relevant companies to guide the public opinion of the epidemic in an orderly manner.At the same time,the production capacity of poultry meat should be strictly controlled to avoid the disorderly expansion of poultry production and the imbalance between supply and demand.
作者
段琮琮
刘灵芝
DUAN Cong-cong;LIU Ling-zhi(Huazhong Agricultural University,College of Economics and Management,Wuhan,Hubei 430070,China;Huazhong Agricultural University,Hubei Rural Development Research Center,Wuhan,Hubei 430070,China)
出处
《农业现代化研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第4期678-686,共9页
Research of Agricultural Modernization
基金
现代农业产业技术体系建设专项资金(CARS-42-28)。
关键词
非洲猪瘟疫情
舆情指数
畜禽产品
价格波动
VAR模型
African swine fever
the public opinion index
livestock and poultry products
price fluctuations
the VAR model
